This Week In College Viability (TWICV) for August 12, 2024

Gary (00:01.205)
It's this week in college viability for August 12, 2024. Hi everybody, it's Gary Stocker back with another week of news and commentary on the higher education industry. Well, college classes are beginning to bring students to campus. A lot of sports have already started for this fall 2024 term. And while the FAFSA debacle is still out there, I'm sensing some last minute scrambling by both students and colleges.

to get the FAFSA app submitted and processed. It was still the last reporting I've seen, it's still down 11 % from what the same point was last year. We'll see how much recovery can take place. I'm still going to stick with my two to three college closings per week, in part as a result of the FAFSA debacle, in part just because of the overall trends that I see have cutbacks and my office. And it really suggests that the end is near for too many.

more private colleges. And there will also be a tipping point. And I've talked about this many times, a tipping point sometime in the next few months. And it may have already happened. It may have already started happening. Students and families may have sensed the risk of smaller private colleges and are already moving toward publics. I haven't really seen the data to confirm that yet, but it could start happening as colleges.

could start to it happening and documenting it as colleges release their official fall enrollment numbers in September. And the form that will take is colleges, private colleges report decreased enrollment and public colleges in general will report increased enrollment. The headlines this week, the University of Wisconsin Milwaukee faculty Senate rebuffs plan to lay off branch campus professors. Well, of course they will. The Associated Press, good for them, the Associated Press is joining me.

in noting the cutbacks and layoffs trend. I can't tell you how pleased I am that many months into the process and my regular reporting on those layoffs and cutbacks and closures that yet another news, another major news organization is following my lead. of the Arts in Philadelphia is in danger of becoming a this week in college viability frequent fire. Details to follow. Keystone College.

Gary (02:26.837)
Keystone, remember that name, Keystone College and the Middle States Commission are in my mind coming together to recreate the Keystone cops. And here's why. This one earns a this week in college viability G's and there'll be more on that here in a minute. And a frequent flyer that I do have, Western Illinois University lays off 35 and won't say how many more will follow. Sad and silly at the same time. Boy, we need to find some serious leadership.

in higher education and there's just such a little of it out there. And then finally, I have a story on a lazy reporter from USA Today. I'll give you more details in a minute, but they were sending students and parents on a data adventure few are prepared to do. And the attempt of the article was to make it easy to identify financially healthy colleges and it was an awful mess for them to do that. Let's start the week off with closures and a no surprise.

East Gateway Community College, the shutdown process is underway. I reported on that quite a months ago, as have many others. Let's go to that University of Milwaukee Faculty Senate robust plan to lay off branch campus professors. And this is from Kimberly Weathall on Wisconsin News on August 9th. And here's what the article said, in a largely symbolic gesture, the University of Wisconsin Milwaukee faculty have voted against a plan that would lay off

three dozen faculty from the Waukesha and Washington County branch campuses. Well, there's not gonna be any surprise in that. Faculty in attendance at this vote raised concerns over setting a precedent for laying off tenured faculty and over other alternatives not being considered. They don't miss what those are. If the plan goes to the board, it will be the first time in Wisconsin, and they have legislation laws allowing this, it'll be the first time that the board has considered using

a faculty layoff policy that expanded the circumstances under which tenured faculty can be laid off. The policy now allows for layoffs in times of financial emergency or because of program discontinuation, which is what's happening here. For all the trials and tribulations, both publics and privates, but this focuses on publics in Wisconsin, this increased flexibility from this law that allows for

Gary (04:48.949)
in expanded circumstances under which tenured faculty, let alone non -tenured or tenure track faculty, can be laid off. This increased flexibility with tenured faculty layoffs may be the saving grace for many publics in the state that allow the management, skilled or unskilled, although they may be, to have the financial resources to continue. Page two, this is the headline in the Associated Press. And welcome to the club.

And this is from Heather Hollingsworth in the Associated Press on August 10th. College is large and small in the US, are cutting programs and eliminating majors to make ends meet. Thank you very much, Associated Press. And in conjunction with that, it was just last week that I released the 2024 College Viability Program Completion App. I released a version for public colleges and one for private colleges that will let anybody anywhere.

see which colleges have strong enrollments and programs and which have weak enrollments and programs. If I'm a parent of a college student and I'm well past that stage, I would use this to decide if my child, for example, wanted me a journalism major, not the case, then I would make sure the journalism program had a sufficient number of recent graduates to be able to warrant being comfortable using that college, including that college, in my consideration for pursuing that bachelor's degree. It's available on the website.

I've got some promotions out there to make it inexpensive to get both versions. And I noticed today the Chronicle released something similar, but it was only for five colleges. The top five colleges in each of the program disciplines they reported on. Mine has almost ,300 private colleges you can compare. And I think something over 1 ,500 public colleges you can compare. Go to collegeviability .com and the website for the college viability app to see those out there. University of the Arts.

Short notice closure back in late May. The headline reads, UArts staff, students continue discussions on closure causes, ways forward and the human toll for takeaways from a city hearing. This is Christian Graham from the Philadelphia choir. And this was on August 8th. And one former dean says there was an elaborate shell game being played with university finances. And we've talked about this a couple of times before, many times before.

Gary (07:13.457)
It's been reported heavily in the Philadelphia Inquirer. That's not the point of this story that I'm bringing this up. There are other URTs taking place as you and I, as I record this and as you listen to it. There are other URTs taking place under the proverbial radar. These short notice closures that will come inevitably, these short notice closures will continue to impact the market's perception.

of the viability of private colleges, mostly small, mostly rural. But nonetheless, if you can't run a private college and you get tragic stories like this, it's not gonna do anything to help the perception of those type of small private colleges. So college presidents, I've said this before, I'll say it again, you know the end is near or you know the end is inevitable.

Please do the right thing for your students, your faculty, your staff, your community. If it's time, the lights off. Turn the lights off.

Let each party get on with their lives. Don't stall. It's not going to change the inevitable. Page three. All right, let's have some fun at the risk of embarrassing some folks, which I've never done that before. Keystone College meets Middle States key deadline. On time, it doesn't say. On time, all right.

This is by Jim Lockwood. think I've had him before on the podcast from the Times Tribune. This was on August 8th. So the story reads the Middle States Commission, and we've had them on a lot, the Middle States Commission on Higher Education requires an institution to have adequate financial resources for long term liability. Keystone submitted a required report from Middle States on August 1st and remains accredited while it is under review. Well, good for Keystone.

Gary (09:26.047)
Let's put a sticker on the college forehead. They turned in something on time. The story goes on to say, this is where I take issue, the report, which is confidential, I don't know why, documents the college's financial resources. Listen to the details here. College's financial resources, funding plan, plans for financial development, multi -year budget, annual independent audit, and a support agreement with any strategic partner, the announcement said.

B -L -O -N -Y. All of those things that I just referenced are unilaterally created by the college. It is a dartboard exercise. is a, in the best case, it's a best guess scenario. In the worst case, it's manipulation in its worst.

Gary (10:17.659)
This is pathetic. I tell you what, we can solve, can do Middle States, save a lot of time for Middle States, for the Middle States Commission on Higher Education. We'll solve Keystone's financial future tomorrow when Matt Hendricks and I review their cash position. They're on the list. We're going to review Keystone and a few other Pennsylvania private colleges. In the College Financial Show, we do that each Tuesday, just did a premier episode last Tuesday.

I'm going to show you the eight year history of Keystone College. It's abysmal four year graduation rates. It's eight years of declining enrollment and an endowment that is not much more than couch money. I'm going to show you the tuition and fees are down four and a half million over the last eight years and funded institutional grants are embarrassingly small. Matt will use his new visualization tool.

to show Keystone's really bad cash position and much, much more timely information than I don't think any of the accrediting agencies, Middle States or others, has the capacity to do. So there, tomorrow, probably be posted sometime about this time tomorrow, midday on Tuesday. The Keystone review will be over. No need for confidentiality. We'll have the data out there. We'll share it publicly. We'll make ourselves available for follow -up. So reporters, if you're confused by the story,

or need some more guidance, reach out to me and I'll get Matt and I together to chat with you about what's going on. You can report weeks, if not months ahead of what Middle States will take and at the same time students are going to Keystone. They're making a decision to attend a college that in all likelihood cannot reasonably, cannot reasonably be expected to survive.

This is a double -jish on really both Middle States and Keystone. What a disservice they are doing to all of us. And our frequent flyer, Western Illinois University. Students speak out about layoffs. This is from Tri -States Public Radio, and J .C. Doar published this on August 8th. A quote from the article, some Western Illinois University students reacted with disbelief upon learning

Gary (12:35.093)
The university laid off 35 non -tenure track faculty members last month and that more layoffs are likely. I'll talk about that in a minute. I try and put myself in the position of these students. It's gotta be tough. But the fact that Western has been in the news for so long with so many problems, this can't be disbelief. This has to be confirmatory. This is a college under such financial stress

that I still don't think it will close, but it is going to shrink to be a mere shell of its former self. Maybe the politicians in Illinois find a way to close it down someday, but that's not going to happen anytime soon.

Gary (13:22.741)
Here's the moral, I guess. Here's the moral of the story. Here's the moral of story for students and families looking at either private or public colleges, of course, Western Illinois, University of Public College on the western side of Illinois. Get the $30, it's $29. I say $30, it's easier to say. Get the $29 college viability app. There's a $29 version available for public colleges and a $29 version available for private colleges and make

The financial health of the college. Make the financial health of the college the first criteria for deciding if a college belongs on your consideration list. Those high school seniors just starting here soon, when you start that college list, if you're looking at private colleges or public colleges, make financial health the first item on your list. Don't invest time in a college that's gonna cut back programs that you may wanna major in.

or that may not be financially viable for the short term or long term. And the app has five simple, basic college reports. I make it easy, there's a tutorial included. And even earlier today, I did a courtesy one -on -one with a student from a private college, I'll talk about that in a minute, who was concerned about that college's financial health. The tipping point, I think, is here. And this is an example where a student, a college student, reached out to me and said, hey, I'm concerned about my college. And part two of this story.

The Western Illinois University Board of Trustees votes to lay off a number of employees, but they don't give a number.

This is from Michaela Slater and Maddie Franz on August 6th from WQAD ABC TV, I believe, in Macomb, Illinois. And during a Tuesday morning meeting, the story reads, Western's Board of Trustees approved a resolution to let go an unknown number of employees. This is important from tenure track faculty to support staff alike. It comes after 35 faculty contracts were already not renewed. And that was last month, I think.

Gary (15:26.193)
And finally on this story, WIU interim president, Christy Mindrup. And that's an indicator itself, interim president. I swear Western Illinois goes through college presidents like you and I go through a dozen eggs. But anyway, Western Illinois interim president, Christy Mindrup said, this is a difficult year. This is the year she says that Western Illinois is taking difficult but necessary action. This is the day she proclaims that we make the conscious decision to not

Pass the buck.

Gary (16:00.565)
I don't know that I would bet the farm that buck passing will stop yet at Western Illinois University. Harrisburg University, Pennsylvania, believe, abruptly closes its international campuses. They had one in Panama and the United Arab Emirates, and they are backtracking on their plans. have their own financial issues. Their enrollment is down 1200 students. The university had some two round of layoffs in the past year or so.

and miss a bond payment of looks like 1 .2 million back in May. That's not good. And their operating margins have gone from positive in 2021 to about 6 million down to a negative and almost 4 million down in 2022 and then down more than 8 million in fiscal year 2023. The college says they haven't been able to raise undergraduate tuition in more than a decade. Of course not. It goes back to that.

Basic economic fact I have shared so many times, this is an issue of supply and demand way, way, way too big of a supply of college seats and nothing close to the demand needed to fill those seats. And colleges, they may raise tuition, but they discount it away, most of it away when they off mix scholarship offers or merit aid offers, discount offers to their students. The market's just not gonna let anybody successfully and materially significantly raise prices.

is a basic law of economics. And this is another example, if you read the whole story, and of course, all these links will be in show notes. Another example of a college not being forthright in its communications, they are hiding stuff. We'll only find out about it after the fact. USA Today on August 5th, Madora Lee had a headline that reads, a college closes every week. We know that. It's about every week. It's not exactly every week.

how to know if yours is in danger of shutting down. Now, this is a story and of course, I'll include the link in the show notes. This is a perfect example of how lazy reporters can be. Now, it's clear to me because I read this stuff all the time. It's clear to me that Ms. Madora Lee from USA Today, used her favorite search engine, whatever that was, and posted absolutely unusable guidance, unusable guidance to students and families. She said, use ProPublica, search the college on the Internet.

Gary (18:22.421)
take a tour of the college and find the common data set. They're all out there, but very, it ain't easy. And very, very few will go to the trouble to go to those kinds of sources. And here's, you know, here's a kicker. I sent Miss Lee a courtesy link to the 2024 private college vibe building app and said, hey, I was nice.

This will make your job easier. You can compare colleges, eight years, all the stuff I've said before. This was about a week ago. And the response, of course, has been crickets. I created the college viability apps, the public and private college versions, $29 each to make comparison of the financial health and viability of colleges easy for anybody. Lee decided she had a better way, which is...

just regurgitating stuff others have said, it doesn't get it done. And this is one of the reasons that I'm here. So to all the reporters out there, I think this is the first one I've called one lazy, I might have done it previously. To all the reporters out there, I can make your job much easier. Drop me a note, drop me a note to garyatcollegeviability, one word, garyatcollegeviability .com. Make sure your email domain references a media outlet suffix, so I know it's a media outlet. And I'll send you a courtesy link to either the public.

or the private version of the 2024 College Viability App. If you don't specify, I'll send the private version. I even included a tutorial for those who didn't take math in journalism class seriously while in college. And reporters.

You're doing a disservice to your readers if you don't make the college financial health and viability comparisons easy for those readers to find and use. And if I were grading Ms. Lee, you would have flunked this exercise because you didn't make it easy at all.

Gary (20:22.837)
And the final story reported earlier on the Forbes 2024 Forbes financial grades for private colleges and university business, Alcino Dunadel did a story on that on August 7th. And I've had Alcino on the podcast, his stories on the podcast before and they reviewed nearly 900 private colleges. And he reports that more than half of all schools earn just C or worse. right. More than half C or worse in 2024.

It was only 20 % in 2021. So from 20 % to more than half, more than 50 % earned a C or worse. So he had some actual numbers in his report. I converted them to percentages. So of all 900 colleges, now keep in mind this doesn't include any colleges. I think it was under 500. Any private colleges with under 500 students, it might have been under 1 ,000. I apologize for not checking. Grades with A plus, A or A minus, about 10%.

Private colleges in a group of about 900 with a B, B plus, B or B minus was about 22%, give or take. Colleges with a C plus, C or C minus was about a 32, about 50%, not quite. And colleges with a D was one in five, almost 20%, 19 .3 % was reported. I'm right on these things.

The trends have gone on for too long. The trauma we're about to face is going to be unlike anything we have seen before. And to wrap this up, let's talk about the ubiquitous college lists that are starting to spot up for the 2025, 2026 school year, mostly for college, for high school seniors right now. And they're all effectively the same. They use the same lists, almost the same list year after year.

So as we enter this really volatile period for private and public colleges, for those who don't want to be burned by financially unhealthy colleges,

Gary (22:29.269)
and maybe not even viable colleges for all I know. Here are the first items that should be on every college selection checklist. And 99 .9 % of these consultants don't even do this, won't even think about doing it because it messes with their model. Look at the enrollment trends. If they're down over the last eight years, and again, this all comes from the 2024 College Viability app. If enrollment trends are down over eight years, not good. If the endowment is below 50, 50 million, that's a minimum threshold.

Many colleges I see don't even have 20, 25 million. And that just takes away the financial resources in a pinch when things are bad for colleges to have resources to survive. If their four -year undergraduate graduation rate is less than 50%, it's a coin toss college. It suggests that this college admits many students as much for tuition revenue as it does for academic reasons. And for those colleges under 40%,

I don't even consider them a college, my own categorization. If you can't graduate four out of 10, 40 out of 100 students that start your college, you're a college of name only. You're mostly just a tuition collection agency or business. Just really sad. And the bonus that's available in the college viability app for parents and students, students and families, is if the tuition and fees trends are downward over the last eight years, if they're decreasing over the last eight years, that means the university's main source of revenue.

is going down and down and down.

Please be careful before adding colleges that meet those four specs on enrollment, endowment, graduation rates, and tuition and fee revenue. Please be careful before adding colleges that meet these specs or worse to your list. And finally, I mentioned this earlier. I had a college student reach out to me for guidance on the financial health of his Massachusetts private college. And I spoke to him for about 20 minutes right before I started recording today's podcast. Here's the point.

Gary (24:32.295)
I've been talking about a tipping point for a long time and many others have even started sharing the concept that I created that the higher education market will or has already, I believe, has already reached that point. It's already reached that point where students and their families are moving away from private colleges in general, small private colleges in particular, and more specifically rural small.

private colleges. If you're looking at a college that meets those criteria, private, small, and rural, be really careful and make sure their finances are exceedingly strong. There are some out there. For sure, there are some out there. And as that tipping point event hits, and I think it already has, we'll see it after the fact, this country, as a tipping point event hits, this country runs a real risk, a real risk of a massive loss.

those types of colleges, private colleges, small rural private colleges. There will still be private colleges, I mentioned that. I think the number will be much smaller. And publics, here's the other side of that, publics will face an increased demand for seats because students will, I believe, will choose to move away from privates for the relative financial safety of publics. And there will be unintended consequences.

of any substantial or massive move of students from privates to publics. No idea what they will be. And maybe we talk about that in a future This Week in College Viability podcast. And toward that end, stay tuned, please, for next week's This Week in College Viability and more news and commentary on the higher education industry. As always, I'm grateful for you making the 20 or 30 minutes to listen to the podcast each week. For Gary Stocker, I'm College Viability. Let's do that right.

For College Viability, I'm Gary Stocker. We'll do it again next week. Take care.