This Week In College Viability (TWICV) for September 14, 2026
Gary Stocker (00:00:00)
It is Monday, September 14, ⁓ 2026. Hi, everybody, Gary Stalker, time yet again for another podcast episode of This Week in College viability news ⁓ and commentary. ⁓ I watched the 60 Minutes interview last night ⁓ with the rescued airmen from that April shootdown earlier this year. The airman identified ⁓
Gary Stocker (00:00:44)
I watched the 60-minute interview with the rescued airmen from the April shootdown earlier this year. ⁓ The airman identified only by his mission call sign Bravo. There was one word Bravo kept using ⁓ as he answered the interviewer's question on 60 Minutes. He consistently referenced ⁓ his training. Now I know that training isn't normally viewed
The same as the education received from colleges. But let's put this in context. This man was ⁓ in an Iranian desert in a conflict and injured. What did he do to survive? He used his training.
Clearly to the benefit of all concerned, except the Iranians. And how does this relate to American higher education?
Gary Stocker (00:01:46)
It is an example of someone with an awareness of the value of learning for sure. And it is an example of an organization, in this case the US Air Force, and there are many equivalent in higher education, that knows how to teach its people stuff. So, why do I lead off with this story on today's show? We still try and jam academically unprepared students.
into an education keyhole that doesn't fit. And we do that in a in way too many colleges and universities, simply to meet the revenue needs of the business. And I've talked about this many times. And even then, we have colleges either hiding their financial plight or glossing over it so that it doesn't keep students from enrolling. Proof. A story last week reported that more than ninety-five percent of colleges
Don't require ACT or SAT test scores. Here is what I said in a Washington Times interview. Colleges are making their decisions on tests based on their own revenue needs. I went on to say we may like to think that colleges are selective in students, they admit, but that only applies to a small number. The financial pressures on hundreds of colleges ⁓ are so intense that any friction
Like requiring tests to be accepted, or even writing essays. And now we're even seeing applications aren't even required. Any refrict any friction ⁓ is eliminated to get more students enrolled. Now, ⁓ again, in the context that I've shared many times, there are millions in military service and on college campuses getting significant value from their education and training.
The sad part is that there are many, many more college students in particular, not getting significant value because they are not prepared for the experience, like Bravo was so well prepared for his.
Gary Stocker (00:03:58)
Page two.
And again, the the large number of enrollment increase announcements continue. ⁓ I expect that well into the end of this month and maybe even into early act in early October. So some of them are year over year, some of them are from fall to spring or spring to fall. And some, you know, proclaim things like the largest increase in three years or five years or seven years, whatever whatever the case may be.
Gary Stocker (00:04:33)
And I'm also starting to see some negative press releases. I have seen them from South Dakota and Iowa and Illinois all releasing stories on both increased and decreased enrollment numbers. Now remember, these announcements, particularly the positive ones, they're all an effort to try and change the narrative that higher education is in decline. And none of these announcements, none of these announcements, are referencing the tuition. ⁓
Revenue generated for the fall twenty twenty six semester. I have yet to hear any college on these announcements announced the tuition discount rate needed to get this ⁓ class. And many times they say it's a large class, record class. Here's my educated speculation.
I'm almost positive I'm right. Here's my educated speculation. The hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of non-selective colleges, these colleges are giving away the store in the form of tuition discounts. And we saw the number last year was 57% on average in 2025. They're giving away the store to get students in the door. And then of course you can say our enrollment is up. Yeah.
You lower the price enough and you're gonna get enrollment. So it's a function of economics. Now ⁓ keep in mind that I use Matt Hendrick's ⁓ Perspective Data Science College Financial Compass to track total student revenue. Now there's a one-year lag, for sure, on the data because it shows up in financial statements. And so the 2026 financial statements just now starting to pop in some form or fashion. And I always shake my head.
When these enrollment announcements don't reference a financial piece. And they reference instead things like the high school GPA of their class. ⁓ It's the largest ever. And of course, that ignores the rampant grade inflation that we've talked about previously as well. University of Arkansas Little Rock. ⁓ They report continued enrollment, enrollment growth as it moves into its 100th year. Alex Keenlan posted this story on September 9th for Arkansas Fox.
Gary Stocker (00:06:52)
sixteen it was a two percent enrollment increase. I don't see the year reference. Now I can't remember if I shared this before, but I think
Colleges, how colleges pick and choose the data they share through media releases and press releases and interviews should be someone's dissertation topic. Here's what the headlines leave out for the University of Arkansas Little Rock. They said their enrollment was up two percent, doesn't give a time frame. Between 2016 and 2024, FTE full-time equivalent enrollment at UA Little Rock dropped twenty-eight percent.
dropped 28%, falling from 8,100 students and change to 5,800 ⁓ students and change. Over the past eight eight reported years, eight reported years, the four year graduation rate hovers around 40%. ⁓ So if you start at the University of Arkansas Little Rock in any of the last eight years, for every 10 students that started there, for every 10 that started the University of Arkansas Little Rock,
Over the last eight reported years, that's 2017 through 2024. Four graduated in four years. Don't tell me about your enrollment numbers. Tell me about tell me about the end product. Tell me about the students who graduated in four years. Because that's the deal. That's always been the deal. And I even pulled the College Viability Inspection Report, and I'll be doing that much more often. ⁓ And for UAE Little Rock, five of nine red flags, including three of three red flags.
on student outcomes. So here we have a college proclaiming a two percent enrollment increase. So that's fine. I don't doubt that. ⁓ And they can't graduate students. And even their enrolment is so short sighted as to not look at the overall trend, which is which is declining in much bigger numbers than they're letting on. And and we know, I've said so many times, colleges will spin short term bumps in enrollment to make themselves look good.
Gary Stocker (00:09:02)
But access without success, access without completion is not success. Enrollment is not success for students or families. Pushing enrollment when graduation rates hover around 40% and lower in many other places serves the institutional tuition revenue needs. It doesn't serve student outcomes. And I'll put the link to the college viability inspection report in the show notes.
Page three. So I've got a new term for you. Boy, these college PR folks are w working hard. If such student, if a student chooses to not go to college, they are engaging, they are engaging in non consumption. If a student chooses to not go to college, they are engaging in non consumption of higher education.
Gary Stocker (00:10:00)
⁓ Quincy University and the Quincy Herald rig. And it was the typical press release covered as a news story. And I'll have the story link in the show notes. ⁓ And
Real reporting from this reporter, I don't have the name in front of me. Real reporting could have uncovered a much less flattering self promotion than we saw in this press release slash news story.
So what I did, and again, flowering news story, the details aren't important. You've heard of them before. I'm not gonna bore you with them. Quincy University touted its horn. They're welcome to do that. They're welcome to do that. Not gonna change. Colleges spin, that's what do. So I pulled on the Prospective Data Science Financial Compass the AI Insights Report for Quincy University. I'm gonna read to you. ⁓ So pull the covers up. It's not winter yet. Pull the covers up. Here's what it says.
Quincy University demonstrates a deteriorating financial trajectory from 2016 through 2025, characterized by significant asset contraction and severe liquidity challenges. Total net assets decreased by approximately 45% relative to 2016 levels, while cash and investments fell roughly 30% relative to the same timeframe. Critical liquidity indicators show severe stress.
With unrestricted net assets, excluding property, plant, and equipment, UNAP, ⁓ declining to a negative 12 million number. And for those that don't follow the UNAP, if it's a negative number, that means that the college is probably barring against its endowment. Probably barring against its restricted endowment. The report goes on. The AI Insights report from Perspective Data Science goes on. The institution's reliance on endowment drawdowns appears acute.
Gary Stocker (00:11:57)
The endowment appropriation rate spiked to roughly get this 37% ⁓ in 2024, far exceeding the stable 4% to 5% peer medium. Operational financial flows reveal high volatility and cost inefficiencies that diverge sharply from national and comparison means. While net student revenues recovered, did recover ⁓ to over 15% growth relative to 2016.
Total operating expenses surged to nearly 40% ⁓ of 2016 levels. So almost three times growth in expenses in relationship to revenues, not quite three, not quite three times. The expense accumulation, excuse me, the expense acceleration occurred despite ⁓ FTE student enrollment remaining approximately 20% below 2016 levels throughout the period.
So let me explain that to you. They were spending more money, even though they weren't getting more students. And it's not unique to Quincy University. Don't get me wrong, ⁓ this is not a single college indictment. I could pull AI insight reports on many colleges and see similar kinds of text. And then finally, although adjusted operating revenue growth reached 50% ⁓ over the relative 2016 baseline, this surge follows years of negative growth ⁓ relative to that baseline.
Indicating indicating an unstable revenue model that has struggled to offset the rapid escalation in operational costs. And again, colleges can spin. Do it. You don't need my permission. But you're not engaging in transparency. Now I understand if I'm the president of Quincy University, that's not gonna happen. I'm gonna be hesitant to share what I just read you. That's why I'm here. I'm not the president of Quincy University or any college. Never will be. I am ⁓
Higher education quality control source. ⁓ I am the reverse FAFSA. The tools I create are the reverse FAFSA. You give colleges, students, and families, give colleges your financial information. I use the same ⁓ data that colleges post to share with students and families, the financial health of the college. It's only fair. And I wrapped up this post ⁓ a couple days ago ⁓ with a note to reporters.
Gary Stocker (00:14:23)
Because I was indicting them on just regurgitating college information and calling the news. Reporters, if you are working on a college story, and this is for those listening to the podcast, if you're working on a college story, drop me a note. Tell me what college of colleges you're working on. I can share the information with you. I don't even need the well, I do want the credit. I do want the credit. But that balance is something college is not going to give you. Parents and families need that balancing information.
Not so they can't choose to not go to a college, but so they can make an informed decision about the risks of choosing any individual college. Page four. I want to talk about college majors. A college offering a major does not mean students are graduating in that major. Just because it's offered doesn't mean students are graduating. Colleges promote long lists of majors.
To recruit students and fill seats and generate tuition revenue. Nothing wrong with that. What the colleges and what the admissions folks at these colleges leave out is the completion data, the completions of these majors. A college can easily advertise a degree program while the actual number of graduates in that major is tiny. And in my perspective, from my perspective, any average of over five, any average over five years in single digits, journalism averaging seven students per year.
Five students per year, three students per year, whatever, should be concerning. Because when that when completions numbers are that low, students take on risk. They take on risk because of the the the intense financial pressures in higher education. That that major may be canceled. Low completion numbers often lead to canceled elective courses, limited class sections, which makes it harder to get in when it's needed, and delayed graduation.
In the worst case, in the worst cases, colleges eliminate underenrolled programs entirely. ⁓ Now, to be fair, and I always try and be fair, most colleges that eliminate majors let students in those majors continue on to graduation, as well they should. And credit to those colleges for doing that. But let's think about this. It's not the whole story, as Paul Harvey would have said. You are at a college as cut majors.
Gary Stocker (00:16:45)
And you are faculty teaching in one of those majors is being eliminated. What are you doing? You're looking for your next gig.
As quickly as possible. The students left behind in that zombie major probably get lower quality instruction because the full-time faculty is leaving. They get lower quality instruction and guidance. So while the university may do the correct thing and letting students finish, in reality, it's not that good of a scenario for students and their careers. And again, like we see so many times, pushing enrollment into majors.
With few graduates, serves institutional revenue, serves a college's revenue needs. It doesn't serve students and families as well. And I will include in this week's show notes a tool I have created called Which College Majors Can I Complete? ⁓ And you can actually search at the number of majors completed ⁓ in colleges across the country. And I'll put the link in the show notes and you can play with it on your own. It's free. The sticker price to moving on. The sticker price ⁓ is a suggestion.
This is from Class101.com. I think it's ⁓ a college advising site or firm. The discount ⁓ is baked in before your student ever applies. Let me read the story. Every year, the National Association for College Business Officers, Nakubo, publishes a study on what private colleges actually charge versus what they publish, less price. The most recent numbers released earlier this year are a record. ⁓
Private nonprofit colleges are discounting first year, that's important, first year tuition by an average of fifty-seven percent.
Gary Stocker (00:18:33)
Discounting tuition by 57%. So for every 10,000 in two intuition ⁓ list price, colleges are collecting $4,300. For every $10,000 list price at a 57% discount, colleges are collecting $4,300 from students. And roughly 90% ⁓ of first-year students receive institutional aid of some kind. They're not all at 57%. Some are higher, some are lower. Let me read that again. ⁓ Nine out of 10 students.
at private colleges are not paying the published list price and the average student is paying well under half of it. But this isn't charity.
This is a pricing strategy. When your student, the love of your life, receives a letter announcing they've won the presidential scholarship or the founders' award or something fancy like that. That award was not decided by a committee moved to tears by your student's essay. In most cases, that that amount, that discount was generated by an enrollment, statistical enrollment model that calculated the exact discount based on families, FAFSA data.
Needed to get a student with that GPA and that test score, or those test scores, if I have them, ⁓ and that zip code, which is an indication of social economic status, to enroll. The scholarship is real money. It's money you don't have to pay. It's not actual dollars transferred from one account to another. And your family should absolutely take it if you're gonna go to that college. Just understand it's a price. It's a discount price, just like Coles uses that.
To get you to buy sweaters and shirts and pants and socks and shoes. The scholarship is real money, and your family should absolutely take it. Just understand it's a price, not a prize. If you want to read more about that, Tiege Matil's new book, College is Broken and What to Do About It is an excellent source. And to the wrap, we shall go. The enrollment ⁓ slope, it's not really a cliff, we're not falling off the edge with enrollment. The downward enrollment slope is upon us.
Gary Stocker (00:20:41)
And from a professional lens, if you're a professional inside of higher education,
Is are we looking at full-time enrollment growth or decline? Undergraduate growth, graduate growth, ⁓ online growth, dual enrollment, high school students taking college classes. Where is the growth? Where's the enrollment increase coming from? All these enrollment announcements I talked about earlier in the show, they don't quantify where it's coming from. They're looking to find the data that best supports the vision, the perception that this college is doing well. That's why enrollment means nothing without context.
And from a parent's lens, from a parent's lens, don't automatically assume that enrollment is up, means the institution is financially stronger. ⁓ It is, in most cases, a college taking enrollment data and spinning it, like I said a minute ago, spinning it to make that college look good. And remember, the enrollment is at best, enrollment is at best a secondary indicator of a college's financial health.
It is the revenue generated, the tuition revenue generated, the room and board revenue generated by enrollment that is the single most critical number. So enrollment went up and financial health went down. That's why I don't want families or college employees or trustees or any stakeholders to stop at the enrollment press release. ⁓ Watch the denominator in that number two. Colleges are becoming increasingly creative about defining.
their enrollment populations to their benefit. They count a high school student taking one dual credit course and a traditional undergraduate student paying room and board and tuition 15 credits are both are both counted the same as students. But they don't have anything close to the same financial impact ⁓ on the institution. That's why headcount, tuition enrollment, sorry, enrollment headcount, without context
Gary Stocker (00:22:40)
Can be one of the most misleading numbers in higher education. ⁓ I want to know the FTE, full-time equivalent enrollment. It's a calculation used to make it a standard measure that we can compare every college in the country to. Total enrollment headcount means nothing. Out of context. I want to know traditional undergrad enrollment. I don't want to know how many, I don't do want to know how many high school students are being countered in those numbers.
I want to know net tuition revenue, how much revenue is being collected to determine the financial health of the college. I want to know what their tuition discounting number is. And I want to see all those numbers trending side by side. And ⁓ for the parent lens, there's another reason this matters. Enrollment isn't simply about whether the college survives. Enrollment trends can actually and eventually affect your students' experience.
If traditional undergraduate enrollment is shrinking, what happens to majors with only a handful of students? What happens to course availability? Are there too few sections so that your students can grab the sections of a course of a major they need to graduate on time? What about faculty positions? Increasing or decreasing? Athletics, residence halls, student organizations, campus service. The question isn't simply how many students does this college have?
The question isn't simply how many students does this college have? The better question is, does this college have enough financially productive enrollment, tuition paying students?
to sustain the experience it is promising my student, myself, my student, for the next four years. We ask that in our college viability inspection report and we ask that in our my college decision lens.
Gary Stocker (00:24:40)
Enrollment is a statistic. Revenue is the reality. ⁓ And in the college viability world, I'm much more interested in reality.
Until next Monday, I'm Gary Stalker at College Viability. As always, I am grateful for you making time to listen to the podcast. We'll be back next Monday.