This Week In College Viability TWICV for September 9, 2024

Gary (00:01.602)
It is September 9th, 2024. Welcome back to another podcast episode of This Week in College Viability High. It's Gary Stocker. Well, we have all survived our first full weekend of college and professional football. Always a big deal in America. So let's get to the headlines for this episode. We have cutbacks and layoffs from Delta State and one other. Rider University in an effort to save the college.

cuts the student newspaper, we'll talk about that. Talladega College says it's not shutting down. More importantly, they have a four step plan. Can't wait to talk about that one. Drake University in Iowa has an interesting spin on two highly qualified Wall Street Journal rankings. You have to hear how they promoted this. And don't tell anybody, but I was kind of mean to the president of the Middle States Commission.

on higher education this weekend, I'll have that story. And Ryan Craig, we've talked about him before, some really, really good writing from Ryan Craig all the time, talks about college rankings will never be done by consumer reports. Everybody, every other mother and her brother reports on college rankings in some form or fashion, but never the penultimate consumer reports. And there's a reason for that. And we'll talk about that as well. On we go, layoffs and cutbacks, Delta State.

They've been on the podcast before. Delta State completes final step in the budget cuts and faculty layoffs. This is from Molly Minta in Mississippi today on the 4th of September. And really all they did was finalize layoffs, nine faculty and they're not filling seven slots. It's just one in a long series of layoff and cutback notices. Bemidji State contends with 14 layoffs. I think it's all faculty and two program reductions amid enrollment increase.

Interesting, they're doing layoffs despite enrollment increases, and I've talked about this before. Enrollment by itself does not pay the bills. It's the tuition fees associated with that. One can guess that Bemidji State isn't generating the revenue they need from their increased enrollment.

Gary (02:18.37)
And the layoffs and cutbacks, you know, even in the event of a normal growth. This is a story that we're seeing with more and more public and private colleges. And I think we'll see that more in the coming weeks and months. Anyway, at Bemidji, $11 million deficit, and like I said, 14 faculty cut page two, there's a new university instruction model at the convocation for Rider University. Now they're trying to do things that every other college has done.

They're trying to add online components. They're trying to add different timing schedules. It's one of those things that colleges are trying, but at Rider, and I know this because I studied the financials, they are in the deepest of due on the financial side, but they had a cure. They, the folks at Rider University know how to save the college. They're, hang on, let me the sarcasm off my mouth here. Rider University cuts the student newspaper.

amid wider reductions and there were certainly more reductions. The New Jersey based private nonprofit has been struggling with declining enrollment. The story reads is trying to shrink its operating deficit. And I guess the student newspaper must have been a big part of that. And this was from Higher Education Dive on September 5th. They're from their fiscal year ending June of last year, June of 2023, they had a $17 million deficit. And also they noted in this story from Higher Ed Dive that the

There's a 12 % decline in student filings from the free application from FAFSA. Now we've theorized on this all summer long, the FAFSA debacle. I even think I made that a proper noun. The FAFSA debacle, I think we'll start to see that in terms of closures, cutbacks and layoffs as we roll into October when colleges get those Title IV checks from their enrollment and realize they can't make it either through December or through the end of the school year next May.

Western Illinois, guys, it's been a week or two since this frequent flyer has been in our podcast. And this is an internal news release from Western Illinois University. And the first part is honest. And I'm reading from the story. And again, internal news story from Western Illinois University. As projected, our enrollment numbers are lower than last year. This outcome reflects the broader changes. Everybody says that. And challenges currently facing higher education. So it's not just us.

Gary (04:43.542)
Western Illinois and everybody else is saying, and they're right to some degree. We anticipated this shift, they say at Western Illinois, and are actively adapting our strategies to ensure that we continue to meet the evolving student needs. Interim Vice President for Student Success, we all need one of those, Interim Vice President for Student Success, Justin Schuch, I believe, said. Now, all right, we're making adjustments, we're adapting.

I've said this before and I'll say it again and again and again. Why wait? Why did Western and many, many, many other public and private colleges, why are they waiting so long? These trends have been obvious for years. For years they've been obvious. And note they only shared good numbers here in the actual story. read those here. They have no reference in the story to how low the actual full -time enrollment is for this fall semester.

So Western Illinois saw a 6 .2 increase in admits. All right, this is the good news. If they want to share, missed that. This is the good news. 6 .2 % increase in admits from students with a GPA of 4 .0 or higher. Well, that's great, but admits don't mean they showed up. That just, as a unilateral, university decided to admit them. Since the enrollment is down, it's got to be a lot of those

4 .0 and higher GPAs decided not to accept the offer of admittance from Western Illinois University. They just chose someone, go somewhere else. Why colleges publish this stuff when it's so easily refutable is beyond me. They're desperate for good numbers and they come up with an increase in admits. And again, I will give them the points for the increase in admits, but it means nothing. It means nothing. Let's go to Michigan.

and the story from Jody Meason and Jacob Johnson and 9 in 10 News, I presume that's TV. On September 6th, local universities seeing student enrollment gains for the first time in a decade. And the first one is on Central Michigan University. And the story reports 40, that's 40 more students in 2024 than in 2023. right, 40 more students. Let's call that a morsel.

Gary (07:04.962)
of good news, 40 students, I'll tell you why in a second. The good folks at Central Michigan University tried to make that morsel into a feast. And here's what they said. This is the first time since 2014, the good folks at Central Michigan University said, the first time since 2014 that we've seen an increase in overall enrollment. There have been some challenging times for colleges and universities, the same.

trying to rationalize this, but we've been able, here's the important part, but we've been able to turn that around, said a Mr. Garcia, I don't see the first name in my notes. He was the executive director of admissions at Central Michigan University. We've been able to turn that around. The challenging times for colleges and universities, but we've been able to turn that around, said the executive director of admissions at Central Michigan University.

Let's go to the data. In 2015, there were 18 ,000 students at Central Michigan. In 2022, the last reported IPEDG years, there were 10 ,600, down not quite 8 ,000 students. So 40 as a percentage of 18 ,000 students, let's make that 40 as a percentage of 10 ,600 students.

I think it's a 0 .4 increase. I'm gonna have to take a look at that, because I'm not sure which one I used when I was writing my stories. Ferris State, also in Michigan, had 41 students, plus 41 students in 24 versus 2023. They're down from 11 ,000 in 2015 to about 7 ,500 in 2022. That's down 31%. But they're up 41 students and they're boasting, as I suppose they should. But it doesn't.

do anything for the finances because it's not materially significant in terms of the overall net tuition revenue generated.

Gary (09:07.187)
And there's a Dave Murray here at Ferris State, who's the associate vice president for marketing and communications. He didn't go pay attention in English class. Mr. Dave Murray did not pay attention in English class because he says, and I quote, we offer some very unique programs. Now, even as I was typing this into my nose, even Microsoft Word pointed out that that was redundant. You're unique. Unique is a standalone. You're not.

very unique, you're just unique, you're one of a kind, very unique is redundant. And they have things Mr. Murray said, very unique things he claims like the Michigan School of Optometry, the College of Pharmacy, and the Kendall College of Art and Design, all offer programs that lead right to careers. Well, don't they all? They're not unique, others offer them, that's a stretch. Page three.

Kind of a good new story. So after reorganization, Vermont State University, their enrollment increases. right, so we'll grant them the point. And this comes from Anne Wallace Allen on September 5th from 7daysvermont .com. And Vermont State University was created just last July, July of 2023, by unifying former state colleges in four areas in Vermont. Mr. Maurice, yeah, Maurice O'May, Vice President for Admissions and Enrollment Services.

credit expanded marketing for some of the gains. And this was an interesting point. Mr. O'Meay said previously each school sent competing representatives, which those four schools, those four colleges, sent competing representatives to college fairs. sorry, Vermont State University now sends a single rep to represent all of those colleges, freeing up resources for additional recruitment efforts in other areas. Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls,

I've been saying this for a long time. One of the big values of consolidation is you bring 10 colleges together and you send your admissions team out. They're representing 10 different colleges or five or 15 or 20. There are great efficiencies associated with that. Now, don't tell me they can't represent all the different colleges because they do different things. That's Representatives for admissions can be trained on how to differentiate the colleges. If nothing else, you can create a document that shows differences.

Gary (11:26.786)
but there's great value in scale. And in scaling 10 or more colleges, you start to get to the area where you can get advantages of those scales. Let's go to South Carolina. And this is from Jessica Holden on September 6th in the South Carolina Daily Gazette. Total South Carolina college enrollment remains flat this fall. And somebody, I don't have the quote here, says nowhere near the cliff. Well,

That's an expansive phrase. We're going to leave that alone for now. I might come back to that another time. But here's what I want to point out. So I've got this long list of maybe 20 plus colleges, private and public in South Carolina from this story in the South Carolina Daily Gazette. And I have four publics. Clemson is up almost 13 % over the last five years. University of South Carolina is up a little over 8%. Coastal Carolina, also public, is up over 7%.

The College of Charleston is up not quite 12 ,000 students, up about 11%, 11 and a half percent. This is a random sample, it's not universal, but I found I've got three colleges, three private colleges together. Now not every private college in South Carolina had declining enrollment, but opposed to the four publics and bigger publics having increased enrollment without exception, Benedict was down 12%.

Bob Jones was down 13 % and Clayfran or Claffin College was down 1900 students, about not quite 9%. So the reason I bring this story up is I have long contended that we may be sitting in the middle of a trend where families are making the decision kind of quietly to say, know what, these public, excuse me, these private colleges are risky. Let's just go public.

Now, we should start, if I'm right in any form or fashion, we should start to see that evidence in the next couple of months. If I'm wrong, I'll be glad to admit that. But I think there's circumstantial evidence to suggest that's the case. All right, the folks, page four, the folks at Talladega County, the folks at Talladega College tell us they are not closing. The headline from Valerie Bell and Tyson Evans.

Gary (13:50.167)
reads Talladega College not shutting down four step plan of recovery set for institutions.

at a news conference in Talladega, outside Alabama. Last week, Talladega College announced their plans moving forward amid recent financial problems. From previous reports, there were some concerns raised regarding the college's financial status. Let's do what we do. Let's go to the data. At Talladega College in Talladega, Alabama, I think that's where the raceway is, the four -year average of four -year undergraduate graduation rates was a pathetic.

A pathetic 25%. EFT enrollment was down 31 students, not a big deal. Grad students were up about 70. The total expenses in the face of somewhat of a decline in enrollment was up 3 million. The endowment, and this is a private college, I believe I should have checked on that. The endowment is at 3 million. And you've heard me say before, anything below 50 million is below my threshold. That's just my own personal one at college viability.

and an endowment as low as three million is not much more than college couch money. The tuition and fee revenue is up seven million. It doubled from 2015. Now, the iPads data is all college reported, and maybe they have it right, that's doubling from seven to 14 million over the course of eight years, maybe. But I question that. Just my gut tells me there's something wrong there.

Their endowment per student is only $2 ,000. That's really low. Their institutional, this one caught my attention, their institutional, management, leadership, administration, support expenses are 47 % of total core expenses. I've never seen an administrative support expense percentage that high. I've never seen that before. And their academic support per student is only at 4%, which is I've never seen one that low.

Gary (15:53.674)
So either they're screwing up the calculations, a distinct possibility, or they're having trouble focusing on the right areas with which to spend their money at Talladega College. Nonetheless, they say they're not closing. Betting the farm, in my mind, is a dangerous proposition for our long -term future for Talladega College. Drake University in Iowa. Here's a headline by Emory Miller from WHO Radio.

Drake ranks as the number one private school in Iowa. Well guys, that makes me want to go back and get another bachelor's degree. So here's the headlines from Des Moines, Iowa. And this is an independent news source. For the second year in a row, Des Moines Drake University ranks number one for the top private school in the state and among the top 200 best colleges in the nation. If only that were true. Because the second sentence talks about the Wall Street Journal's

2025 college pulse ratings, whatever those are. Finds Drake ranked highest in the state.

for something called salary impact score, as well as value added to graduate salary.

Gary (17:10.122)
I don't know what either of those are. suppose I could look up the definitions, but number one, Drake ranks number one for the top private school. The other two points are qualifications. Pulse college, pulse rankings, salary and backscore value added to graduate salary. The PR folks at Drake really had to dig deep to come out. But, know, let me do this. Let me be honest. First of all, congratulations.

to the good folks at Drake University. Their mother must be so proud that they are the top private school, so they say, for salary impact score and value added to graduate salary. God bless them. Go get that thing done. this is an example of college ranking systems that are all over the place. You and I could start one right now if we wanted to.

College ranking system is now making sure every college gets a prize with which such vague and ridiculous recognition categories. Maybe there's one out there for the best college with tall evergreens. The best college with the most perfect grass. We're the top in our state because we have the best college with the greatest trees. I'm being silly, of course, but.

These ranking agencies, ranking companies, these ranking systems are desperate to find ways to differentiate. And the colleges are equally desperate to find anything to publicize themselves about. And they're welcome to do that. I'm also welcome to say, guys, you lose credibility when you try and do this kind of stuff. Now, in the same vein, I asked, in a tender moment, I asked my wife to rank me last night.

And she said, of all the husbands I've had, and she's had one in last 45 years, that's me. She says, you are the best at watering the grass. I am the best at watering the grass. So I think, and since we live in Missouri, I am the best husband in Missouri. According to my favorite wife of 45 years. This recognition goes right to the refrigerator door to show off my

Gary (19:33.59)
best in the state of Missouri recognition. I hope the good folks at Drake put that recognition on their equivalent of a refrigerator door as well. Rankings, ladies and gentlemen, rankings are meaningless as we'll see in a minute. So the next story has to do with going to a football game. So I was sitting ready for a college football game to start on Saturday evening and I was perusing my LinkedIn profile.

And I stumbled across a story from Heather Profetti, who is the president of the Middle States Commission on Higher Education. She proceeded in this article to say what a fabulous job her accrediting agency does and what a fine, strong focus they have on students.

Gary (20:25.514)
I responded. And here is exactly what I said in my LinkedIn post. And again, this college, this accreditation president from the Middle States Commission on Higher Education, Ms. Heather Profetti, tried to prove, tried to demonstrate that her organization has the students' best interests in mind. And I responded. This article from the Middle States leader is higher education drivel.

I can cite two private colleges from just this week, this past week, the College Financial Health Show and non -sustainable, dire financial straits. Yet neither of the accrediting agencies involved, Middle States is one of the two, neither of the accrediting agencies involved have issued a peep, a single word.

nothing to warn students or faculty or even the communities about the financial, the lack of financial health, the lack of financial viability of these colleges. And if you want to look at that, you can go look at the college financial health show from September 3rd, I believe, where we talked about those. And each of the colleges in trouble that we can show in both cash and historical trends, each was reviewed by their responsible

a crediting agency in the past two years. They reviewed in the past two years, no warnings at all.

Gary (21:59.232)
And to suggest, I went on to conclude, to suggest that students are at the forefront of the Middle States Commission on Higher Education.

Gary (22:12.641)
It's just not supported by the evidence. There are countless colleges that won't make it. I know about it when Matt Hendricks and I do our Tuesday show and the college financial health show. We can tell you more and more. And we cover some strong ones, but most of the time this college is in trouble because we believe we have some responsibility, maybe even an obligation, to share with the public to be careful. Some of these colleges don't have the cash, don't have the financial strength for any kind of

short -term, medium -term, or long -term survival. And you can read the posts with all these stories in the show notes. I'll have the link for the story from Ms. Profetti. And then Ryan Craig. And I've had Ryan Craig on the show before, his content, not him himself. And this is, he writes a GAP letter, G -A letter, for Achieve Partners. This was on September 6th. And he talks about U .S. releases, released its 2025 rankings this month.

and he was focusing on Columbia College, which has a history of cheating. And he says the biggest problem isn't that colleges are cheating, although it happens on occasion, but rather, Mr. Craig argues, rather that the entire exercise measures inputs, measures inputs, not outcomes. And I have shared this before.

A large percentage, 44%, is based on inputs like financial resources per student, faculty salaries, standardized test scores, and peer assessment, which is as subjective as can be. And from a student perspective, part of it is a blend of overall graduation and retention rates, and those typically are better for healthier, for wealthier colleges with more prepared students.

What Mr. Craig offers is U .S. News continued reliance on inputs, like we just talked about, and I'll give you an example here in a second. U .S. News continued reliance on inputs has made college less affordable. And here's why. To meet the U .S. News and World Report specs, colleges spent more money, continue to spend more money on inputs. And I can make a reasonable case that those inputs largely are in the form of hiring non -academic employees to make the college input.

Gary (24:29.344)
systems and processes look better. Nobody looks at the output piece with any consequence, with any substance. And over the decades, Craig group goes on to say there was little argument against increasing spending per student. And so tuition fees went up accordingly. So Ryan Craig concludes what's going on here. The only available outcome data, income data is so subjective as to not be valuable.

And he makes many points. One I want to talk about, the data is limited to 10 years from enrollment. So you started 18, 10 years after that is 28. 18 plus 10 is 28. So for some four to six years after graduation, income is measured only for students who borrow from federal sources. Mr. Craig also points out that the median income after just four to six years after graduation is not the best.

You know, I was a medical laboratory scientist from 1979 to 1985. I worked in hospital laboratories here in the St. Louis area. I didn't start earning substantial income until after that mid 1980s kind of time period.

And the most interesting part of Ryan Craig's story is US News never was or will be an authoritative Consumer Reports, the magazine, the online service we've seen for decades for higher education. He notes that Consumer Reports has not attempted to rate colleges and for good reason. It's difficult to count the kind of things that Consumer Reports does a good job counting and measuring for everything from computers to ironing boards to ironing to doors.

to whatever else consumer reports measures. And finally, Craig adds, the US news rankings are simply the sole surviving vestige of a third rate news magazine taking advantage of higher education's data desert.

Gary (26:32.034)
as well as those of us who feel the need to be rankings justified before investing in either college or yet's frozen dessert. And here's my analogy. You've got a student who says, I spent 20 hours studying for this exam. I bought two extra books to read and paid a tutor a lot of money on whatever this topic is. I have earned an A says the student.

who scored 72 % on the test or paper or assignment, the 20 hours, the extra books, the tutor or inputs, the outcome is 72 out of 100 points. That's a measurable outcome. And nobody's doing that with any capacity to be useful in higher education.

Gary (27:32.296)
let's wrap this episode up.

with a story from what we talked about last week, the week before, college. This is the time of year when colleges have their enrollment announcements. We are great. We have great enrollment. And I'm going to pick online college. Last week, was a different college. Last week, it was.

Missouri Valley here in Missouri. Lion College fall enrollment of 13 .5%. This is from Education News Briefs. wasn't dated. Written by George Jared. I'm going to give you one number. 39%. Our number is 39%. From 2015 to 2022.

39 % was the average four year undergraduate graduation rate at Lyon College. I'll come back to that. Here are two quotes. Lyon College President Melissa Taverner, this quotes, here's a quote, it underscores, Lyon College, it underscores our ongoing efforts to provide a high quality, she actually uses the word high quality.

supportive and welcoming learning environment that attracts students from across Arkansas, the nation, and the world says Lyon College President Melissa Taberner, 39%. The provost at Lyon College, Dr. Kurt Grafton says, more and more they, talking about students, recognize the exceptional value and experience that Lyon

Gary (29:17.698)
college offers 39 % and for those of you that didn't pay attention to math class that's 39 out of 100 or 390 out of a thousand. Look at it like this for every 100 students that started at Lyon.

and enrolled four years ago, or in this case 2018 for the reports from the RPEDS report, 79 of them did not graduate. For every 100 students that enrolled at Lyon, 70, I take that back, 69 of them did not graduate from Lyon College.

Gary (30:29.122)
Look at this, for every 100 students that started at Lyon College and enrolled in 2018 to fit this data period, 61 of them did not graduate from Lyon. So now some transferred and graduated elsewhere, but it's the comparisons that matter. 39%, how do you call yourself a college if you can't even graduate four out of 10, 40 out of 100, 400 out of 1 ,000?

You heard me say this before, if you can't graduate students at least four out of ten, which is pathetic, are you really a college or are you more of a tuition collection agency? And this is why I'm here. Colleges, you're welcome to spend your time. There's nothing wrong with that. We all do it. You're welcome to put your credibility at risk also. Colleges, you're welcome to put your credibility at risk when you refuse to acknowledge

your inability for whatever reasons to graduate students. And the challenge is there are too many college spinners and only one college quality control monitor, and that's me. Colleges boast about your enrollment. That's fine. You're going to do it no matter what I say. And too many of you, too many of you hide your graduation rates. That's a sad commentary.

because it's so bad. That's a sad commentary on American higher education. On tomorrow, Tuesdays, the College Financial Health Show, Matt Hendricks and I will review three more colleges. And our focus this week on colleges who have had, are great enrollment announcements the last few weeks. And you'll find as we look at the finances and the history of these colleges, you should be prepared for bad news for each as we look at each's financial health.

and viability. Hey, thanks as always. Thanks for making time. Make sure you send your questions, your comments, your concerns even to gary at collegeviability .com. That's gary at collegeviability .com. Until next Monday for College Viability, I am Gary Stonker. Take care.