This Week In College Viability (TWICV) for Sep 15, 2025

Gary D Stocker (00:01.716)
It is this week in College Viability News and Commentary for Monday, September 15, 2025. And this, course, is the podcast that talks about the financial health and viability of public and private colleges with data and with details and perspectives offered nowhere else. And as always, please forward the podcast link to your higher education friends, to family members, to those starting the college search.

to those worried about the colleges that they're at. There's no sense in just you getting the latest news and commentary and a different perspective on the whole industry. One of the ways I unwind during the last part of each day is to watch YouTube videos. I like to watch talented entertainers and comedy clips from TV shows. That's just me. And one of them, one of those clips came across my feed over the weekend.

was the University of Michigan band and some of the students performing a medley of songs from the musical Wicked. It was just stunningly good.

I bring this up as an opportunity to again say that college is good. College is really good for millions and millions of American students, worldwide students. Go if you can. Just know that not all colleges are going to get you where you want to be. And watching those students in that band and the few dozen singers was

It was just mesmerizing. I watched it a couple of times over the course of the weekends. And those students in that example exemplified an important part of the college experience. It was a quality experience. And I know it was at a powerful big boy college, but it was impressive, so impressive. And while I mostly talk about colleges with troubled finances,

Gary D Stocker (02:12.576)
and poor outcomes read as graduation rates, the college experience for millions of students is positive and will continue. It's those colleges, both public and private, that clearly don't have the financial resources to provide a comprehensive, a comprehensive quality college experience that need to be called out. And those are the ones that I point out mostly.

And of course we'll continue to do so.

My inbox continues overflow with fall 2025.

and normal announcements. I have quit counting them.

Gary D Stocker (03:02.388)
My head is spinning from college news spinners and headline writers and nothing is new. Colleges spin enrollment. Colleges spin a lot, but this time of year they spin enrollment numbers. And graduation rates, as I've talked about so many times, are awful at too many. And finances aren't even discussed in these announcements. And reporters...

Reporters keep regurgitating press releases from colleges as if they are words from the God from God on high. These reporters don't analyze or analyze. They don't use the data. They don't critique. And again, I've said many times, reporters reach out to me, LinkedIn, garyatcollegeviability.com, whatever you want. I'll give you access, free professional courtesy access to the data I use to evaluate these colleges so you can save a lot of time.

and learn lot more about the colleges you are writing about in the future. Please, please, please, let's get away from this regurgitation reporting from higher education reporters. So here are some of the news stories and commentary for this week. Fall 2025's unexpected enrollment successes.

Okay, well, they can start with that. I've got some commentary. Colleges, I'm going to wrap up with colleges as commodities. This is from the Education Alliance Group and Dr. Chet Haskell. And I have what I think is my first ever public college not worthy of consideration call, and that's for Western Illinois University. And colleges, we're have a story on colleges wrap.

with selling dreams. Colleges sell dreams, not reality. And I think I might have one or two individual college stories as well. So college drivel. Let's start off the week. Got a few of those. Here's some college drivel from University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point's Wausau campus. Students will have a seamless connection. That came from MBA school.

Gary D Stocker (05:17.966)
Students will have a seamless connection between one college and the other. Advisors from both schools will work together to find options that fit students' interests and finances. This is from, I think, a merge to public colleges in the state of Wisconsin. Here's another one. This is from Illinois College in Illinois, of course. And the vice president of external relations, Ms. Stephanie Chipman said,

The energy on campus is palpable. Is palpable as students meet lifelong friends and have a blast while engaging their curiosity in class and through internships. Nothing wrong with dropping in a nice keyword there. The class of 2029, Ms. Chapman-Chippman says, embodies the momentum and excitement building as Illinois College approaches its historic

bicentennial. Now, my mind, historic bicentennial is kind of redundant. You're only going to have one, so it's bicentennial. It's historic by nature. And then let's go to Schreiner University, I think, and Alan Lebrick. Our enrollment momentum, if it actually is, our enrollment momentum is testament to the personalized, purpose-driven, now the key words, purpose-driven experience Schreiner offers, Alan Lebrick.

Vice President for enrollment services. Families are seeking value community and career ready programs. I'd like to see a list of that. And they are finding all three at Schreiner. The university attributes the growth partly to new program offerings, including football launching in the fall of next year and a drum and bugle chord that began this year. We're going to talk about football programs here in a couple of

Gary D Stocker (07:14.018)
Page 2, Fall 2025's Unexpected Enrollment Successes. right, here's a subheading. is from Joanna Alonzo and Inside Higher Education on September 10th. Fall 2025's Unexpected Enrollment Successes. Colleges credit popular health science programs, increased dual enrollment, and stepped up retention efforts and more for their record enrollments this fall.

Ms. Alonzo goes on to cite a, not even a handful, I don't think, of colleges with higher enrollment. I didn't check all the data. I just don't have time. But here's a headline I would offer for anybody that wants to pick up on it. And the headline should read, No News is Bad News. No News is Bad News for Hundreds of Public and Private Colleges.

Gary D Stocker (08:12.398)
No one has tracked these Fall 2025 enrollment announcements as thoroughly as I have. And you've heard me talk about that and comment on that in the last couple weeks. This is a puff piece. This is a puff piece by pulling a few enrollment stories, more souls if you will, and rolling them into one big feast of a story. Just sad, sad, sad commentary. And clearly,

I had a couple posts last week on my social media. Clearly, reporters are more comfortable with regurgitation reporting than they are with digging into actual financial data. I'll say it again, I'm there for you.

Gary D Stocker (08:56.116)
Yes, I take shots because I don't think you're doing your job well. I'll give you access, professional courtesy access to the data, to the apps I use, some I created, some I didn't. Drop me a note at garyatcollegeviability.com or through LinkedIn. I'll be happy to reach out to you, give you links, professional courtesy, and we can even set up a time for me to show you how they work. Page three.

This is from Dr. Chet Haskell in the Education Alliance Group. This is on September 8th. His headline reads, are so many smaller independent colleges and universities so similar? I've said that before. And what does this mean for their futures? Dr. Chet Haskell, the Education Alliance Group. Let me read.

The main part of what Dr. Haskell writes, the fact is that it is difficult to differentiate among many of these institutions. Not only their scale or their general model of personalized education, undergraduate education are similar, but many of their basic messages sound the same. A review of the websites of these schools or these colleges results in striking consistencies

of stated, he puts in quotes, unique missions or not, programs, facilities, faculty, and even marketing materials. Their approach to financial challenges, Dr. Haskell continues, their approach to financial challenges are also similar. There is, as I've discussed many times, considerable competition on price. Most of these institutions discount their formal tuition rates by 50 percent or more.

and initiatives to grow enrollments support an industry of educational consultants whose recommended initiatives are themselves similar.

Gary D Stocker (10:57.6)
All themselves similar and even if successful are quickly copied by others thus reducing the advantages paid for.

This is what I've been saying.

This is what I have been saying. Colleges are a commodity. Most colleges are a commodity that in almost all cases are differentiated only on the price. The product for these colleges is that piece of paper at whatever level, associates, bachelor's, master's, doctoral. The product is that piece of paper that says a student has shown the consistency, intellect, patience, and persistence

to accumulate so many credit hours and has graduated from this institution. That's the product. It is not the trees, it is not the faculty, it is not the buildings, it is not the marketing materials. It is that piece of paper that says I have graduated. And how about a this week frequent flyer? Western Illinois University's official enrollment down.

administration striving for a turnaround. How many times have I had this Western Illinois kind of story on the podcast on my social media? This is from Tri-States Public Radio. Rich Eggepo did the story on September 13th. His story reads, Western Illinois University's official headcount this fall is 5,300 and change. That's a drop from 900 almost a thousand from just last fall.

Gary D Stocker (12:39.712)
enrollment was about 6,300 and change. Justin Schuch, SCH UCH, Western Illinois Vice President for Student Success said the senior class is the largest one among current students. So he's he's he's giving hands up. There might be, Mr. Schuch says, there might be a dip in enrollment again next fall.

But he said the administration is striving to reverse course. How many times, how many times has not only Western Illinois, but other colleges had the same kind of press release, the same kind of story.

Gary D Stocker (13:23.534)
Too many colleges, Too many colleges, not enough students. And until that changes, there will continue to be cutbacks and layoffs, closures, and down-the-road mergers. And Mr. Shook, by the way, is the vice president, like I said, of student success, for student success. Maybe the vice president for student success at Western Illinois should spend more time on improving the four-year graduation rate. Hovering at around a pathetic

Pathetic 30 % level. Huh. Three and 10 for those that didn't pay attention to math class. Pathetic 30 % level over the last eight reported years. And then they've got the, I'll say gall, I was thinking something else, to engage in some serious spin. They say even though enrollment is down from a year ago, it's a bit higher than what administration anticipated guests at.

few weeks ago. And this, like many, and watching this popped up on my radar because they've been on so many times, it was a good one to put in the podcast. This continues to be a story full of could-haves, should-haves, would-haves, and hope-fors.

And then Mr. Shook goes on to add, another challenging trend since COVID is that graduating high school students are choosing either the largest institutions, and how many times have I said that? Choosing either the largest institutions or those closest to home. And then the oil energy statement, despite the drop in enrollment, Shook senses a positive vibe. I'd love to know how to measure that, a positive vibe.

at Western Illinois University. Get out the Jish. I'm going double Jish on this one. I'm going to say it and I don't think I have done this for public.

Gary D Stocker (15:24.43)
From my perspective, having watched Western Illinois for years wallow in declining financial health, declining enrollment, poor graduation rates, and leadership turnover that is just, just silly. This Western Illinois University in my mind, based on the data, based on the history, has become a college that is not, is not worthy of consideration.

for new students.

If a student in that area of Illinois or Eastern Iowa wants to stay close to home, of course, that's fine. There are many other options in Illinois and in Eastern Iowa that would almost certainly, almost certainly serve you better than Western Illinois University in Macomb. Page four, Hackenger has a story just adding college football help with recruiting. It's complicated, they say.

So some colleges seeking to attract more male students are adding football. Research suggests that the hoped-for gains are probably going to be short-lived. this is college and it is Roanoke College in Virginia. And they have the report signing up, I think, 97 new football players.

So let's do the numbers. Yeah, that's me. 97 players. Let's say 11 play at a time, right? 22 can play if they specialize in offense and defense, and that goes either way at the smaller colleges. Let's add another 11 for folks to be on special teams. They can run on the field, run down there for puns or kickoff coverages or field goals, whatever. Let's add another 11 give or take for subs. I think I'm being really generous. So somewhere around 50.

Gary D Stocker (17:27.054)
50 players will actually see the field in a game at Roanoke College and any other college that does this kind of adding a football or other sports as well. What are the other 47, 90 minus 50, what are the other 47 gonna do? How long do they think they will stay at that college?

Am I the only one that thinks this through?

Roanoke College raised $1.3 million to fund this startup football program. You have to wonder. You have to wonder if that is maybe a misplaced priority of their fundraising efforts. research consistently shows that adding football does not increase enrollment appreciably or increases it only for maybe a few years.

And this is, in my mind, this is more management by PR, the leadership here saying, hey, look, we're doing something. We're adding sports.

So at the end of the day when colleges like Roanoke can't meet payroll, can't keep the lights on.

Gary D Stocker (18:43.694)
The leadership would probably have moved on. Kind of said, well, hey, we tried everything out. Sidebar to this, Bankrupt to You was a book out last year about this time by Joe Karabi and Bill Quain. And they talk about this kind of college has a pay to play gimmick, is what they call it. Pay to play means these 97 students go to college, Roanoke in this case, and they get a discount. It's gonna be big discount. I have no idea what it is at Roanoke, but they're still gonna pay some level of tuition.

and some level of room and board expenses to play football.

And I guess there's nothing wrong with that. We pay for everything else. Almost everything else in the world. Why should students not pay to play? I guess I have to wonder if that might catch on at other colleges. And just note, if you're thinking these 97 players at Roanoke or these other colleges that football or wrestling or drum and bugle corps are giving full scholarships or not.

It's discounted tuition and you don't have to play football. You could be a good clarinet player. You could be really good with computers and get the same discount if not more.

And let's do a wrap on a story from the James Martin Center for Academic Renewal, September 12th, James Andrews. Selling dreams, the headline reads, selling dreams, not reality. And this headline reads, colleges are marketing possible, not likely outcomes. That needs to change from James Andrews. Let me read what James Andrews at the James Martin Center.

Gary D Stocker (20:23.246)
for Academic Renewal Road, colleges frame programs, majors, in terms of possibilities, in terms of possibilities, not probabilities. They pitch degrees like products, emphasizing prestige and potential only, while downplaying the risks of dropping out or ending up unemployed or underemployed even after getting a college degree. I added that part.

These institutions influence such decisions millions of times across the country each year, but a student, each individual student, makes them probably only about once, maybe twice. And while students hold internal data on outcomes and on labor markets, they rarely share what matters most.

And when a program survives on enrollment rather than outcomes, Mr. Andrews continues, the incentive is clear. Listen closely. When a program survives on enrollment rather than on outcomes, the incentive is clear. Sell the degree, sell the enrollment, my words, not the result.

Advising becomes marketing.

And students then are stuck making these high stakes decisions based on incomplete information or lack of perspective or lack of guidance. And the irony, Mr. Andrews writes, is that much of this data is already public. Available through tools such as college scorecard, career one-stop, that's one word, state dashboards, and of course, apps, the college viability apps and the new my college viability apps, of which there are free versions for students and families.

Gary D Stocker (22:11.126)
and faculty staff, college counselors, and even alumni, we just recently added. And outside of my stuff that I've created, and outside of the stuff that Matt Hinnick creates on the financial side, these college core cards, financial statements, they're fragmented, buried in technical portals, not that hard to find, but hard to figure out. And they almost never appear where students make these actual decisions. I'm working to fix that. That's me.

Institutions could surface these outcomes, but they don't.

And let me close with this, and this is paraphrasing what Mr. Andrews said. Colleges have the data. They know which programs lead to viable careers and which don't. But since transparency, being honest about which degrees don't offer substantial post-graduation income, transparency threatens the bottom line. So it's avoided, not just on the outcome side, but on the financial side. And the cost

This doesn't fall on the college. It doesn't fall on the institution. It falls on the student. It falls on the student who leaves with debt and disappointment and no clear path forward in too, too, too many cases.

Gary D Stocker (23:36.088)
Higher education in America has become mostly a spin game. Too many colleges are chronically underfunded, understaffed, and unable to deliver a meaningful outcome for too many students, and they spin their lack of success. So it's very difficult to figure out. And again, there are exceptions, of course. And I talked about that earlier in the podcast. There are millions of students who get great value from college, it's those on the margins

Those are the margins that I think colleges are taking advantage of. The focus on enrollment over graduation outcomes is a disservice to those thousands and thousands of young people who would almost certainly be better served passing on the college experience. As always everybody, thanks for listening.

I'm Gary Stocker at College Viability. I'll be back next week with another episode, news, and commentary on this week in College Viability. Thanks again. Take care.