This Week In College Viability (TWICV) for Oct 6, 2025

Gary Stocker (00:01.172)
It is Monday, October 6th, 2025. Time for yet another episode of This Week in College Viability, News and Commentary. Hi, everybody. Gary Stonker back in front of the still blue yeti microphone. I've changed the angle of the microphone a little bit today. We'll see what that does. And of course, this is the podcast that talks about the financial health and viability of public and private colleges with data and with details and perspectives.

offered nowhere else. And as always, please consider forwarding the podcast link to your higher education friends and neighbors and family members. No sense in just you getting the latest news and commentary on this whole troubled industry. This week's show includes, of course, many layoff and cutback stories. You shouldn't be surprised at that. More tuition resets. That's not what they call them, but more tuition resets that focus on access.

enrollment, but not success, graduation rates. I'll have more on that. More colleges promise graduates employment or grad school placement. An interesting back and forth as I read through that story. I'll have more on that, of course. And America's distorted market for higher education. There's a writer that says we wouldn't like it if restaurants priced their meals like colleges price their tuition. Of course, much, much, much more on this.

week in college viability layoffs and cutbacks. Layoffs spending cuts hit Washington University in St. Louis and that's of course just down the street from me. Monica Obradovich from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch had that story on September 29th. Interestingly, they announced 40 positions cut on September 29th and then 300 cuts total on October 1st. Somebody's calculator must not have been working.

And Monica did reach out to me and I did have a quote she used in that story. I'll read the quote. This is on the WashU cutback story. Gary Stocker, a St. Louis based higher education analyst and founder of College Viability, said elite universities across the country are using revenue from layoffs to subsidize research. He suggested some elite universities such as WashU may be using federal turmoil as a scapegoat to eliminate bloat. Rhymes.

Gary Stocker (02:26.092)
In my opinion, Stocker said, that's me, in my opinion, there's a likely scenario where many of those research funds come back. The question is, will those like WashU who laid people off bring them back or are they using this as an opportunity to cut expenses that they would otherwise not have done? Let's go to music. Berkeley College of Music lays off 70 employees, interestingly, no faculty. Molly Farrar had this story at boston.com on October 2nd.

that laid off 3 % of its employees across its campuses, affecting 70 staff members and no faculty positions. The spokesperson said the, I'm guessing this is with a straight face. This person said the workforce reduction will not impact any programs or academic offerings.

Gary Stocker (03:19.63)
All right, so what were those 70 people doing beforehand? And don't you ever wonder? Don't you ever wonder how that is possible?

What were those 70 employees doing if they were not supporting programs, if they were not supporting academic offerings in some form or fashion? What were they? Were they all mowing grass, painting the walls, patrolling for safety? Come on, guys. Buying people better announcements are too easy, too easy to make fun of. And let's go to all the way back out to the West Coast.

At least 54 more employees let go at the University of Southern California. Six hundred and ninety two total layoffs as deficit reductions continue. And again, there are 10,000 plus employees on what it is at Southern Cal State filing confirmed 55 more cuts, including union members. This is a story from Louise Herndon, Elizabeth Solorzano, and Riley Sager and Kelly Tang on October 3rd from U.S. Southern Cal's

Annenberg Media, I think it's a website. And the provost and senior vice president for academic affairs. I always love those short titles. Andrew Guzman said at an academic Senate meeting in September that USC had established a plan to save 400 million by the end of the fiscal year. I guess he's telling that somebody or somebody is telling that to somebody. And the report said it was released from President Kim's letter at Southern Cal.

Gary Stocker (05:02.284)
that announced those layoffs as well. All right, just more jumping in. DePaul. Let's keep the theme going. DePaul University to cut spending after a 30 % drop in international students. And we have more on international students here in a minute. This is Kate Armanini from the Chicago Tribune on October 3rd. And DePaul University, of course, in the Chicago area. Overall, they announced, overall there are 755 fewer international students enrolled compared to last fall.

The drop was even steeper for first year international graduate students, which declined nearly 62 % of their factors, squeezing Nepal's budget. Student financial aid has increased significantly. I don't know if that's funded or unfunded. It doesn't say, I'm just guessing discounts, but I don't know that for a fact. And now it's expected to cost the university roughly seven million above budgeted levels. Again, I have to ask the question, seven million above budgeted levels, are these real dollars?

Coming from funded scholarships, are these roughly $7 million in discounts? Still $7 million, I understand, but they're unfunded. It's not like somebody's taking $7 million out of the bank. Granted, they're foregoing that revenue. It's just the colleges, they're not upfront. They're not upfront with this stuff. They also mentioned higher healthcare costs are adding. Overall benefits have grown by 23 million over the past five years.

and additionally non-international undergrad, so domestic I guess, domestic undergraduate enrollment has dropped roughly 300 students.

Gary Stocker (06:40.074)
If we saw stories from other industries with all these kind of cutbacks, we'd be concerned. And there is concern for sure in higher education. I have these stories week after week after week. I don't think there's been a week since I've been doing this podcast for what, four years now, that there hasn't been layoffs and cutbacks.

It's a troubled industry and we're going to continue that theme. I'm not I'm taking other stories. I'm not making this stuff up. College drivel this week. All right. I'm starting to name names. It's silly enough that I'm going to start naming names, I think, all the time. College drivel, D-R-I-V-E-L, silliness. North Park University's rise in multiple rankings tells the story of our sacred mission in action.

And this is from North Park University's President Mary Kay Surridge. We affirm and support our students, open doors of opportunities and change life trajectories for generations to come. Through excellence in education and faithful service, we are poised and prepared to elevate and advance our mission even further." This said the president of a college.

said the president of a college who cannot even graduate. Four in 10, 40 out of 100, 40 % of its students in four years.

Gary Stocker (08:18.114)
Draw your own conclusions. Colleges say this all the time, that they have these big grandiose statements and they're not graduating even half their students. These folks are about 40 % on average over the last eight reported years.

Page two.

Tuition resets. Nobody calls them that, but we've got folks doing it. Emory and Henry University lowers tuition by 50 % for upcoming year. This will be 2026. This was posted September 30th by Rachel Fogg. This is an internal document at Emory Henry University. And let's lead with a four-year average graduation rate this time. It's less than 40%.

from 2016 to 2023, the last reported years, the 2024 data should be coming out in the next couple of months. And how do they lead their story, this internal story, they're welcome to do whatever they want with the internal stories. That's why I'm here, your higher education quality control kind of guy. How do they lead their story? Change underscores the university's commitment to accessibility amidst the evolving world of higher.

Education, I'd reach for my Kleenex over here, but I'm not actually generating any tiers. Emory and Henry University today announced a 50 % reduction in its annual undergraduate tuition price, underscoring the institution's ongoing commitment to accessibility. I might change that word, ongoing commitment to enrollment, because it's certainly not graduating very many folks. To the data. To the data. We go so often. 2016 to 2023, enrollment's up.

Gary Stocker (10:04.142)
about 300 students from 1100 to 1400. The net tuition revenue per student was $12,300. That's low. That was back in 2016. It was up to 12,500 and change in 2023. So up $200 over eight years. And those are nominal numbers. Those don't include account. Those don't account for inflation. And so that actual amount with inflation considered is going to be less than

through $12,500. So I did some math. The 2024 tuition discount rate, this is from their audited financial statement, is how I calculated this, was 46%. So the list price is $39,975. At the discount of 46%, it's 21,000 and change. Emory, Henry, and Henry University is proposing 19,900. Plus they say additional scholarships are available. All right, again, they're welcome to do that.

Clearly their focus is on enrollment. Again, not so much on graduation. And even their end of year endowment. The growth of that was at the 25th percentile, which means that 75 % of all private colleges are doing better. This is a college in my mind desperate to get students in the door, like so many.

And you can see it their finances.

You can see it in the graduation rates. So they had a quote. I'm going to add a Gary Stocker analysis and interpretation. And I'll tell you when I do my part. From a statement from Emory and Henry University, a quality education can take a student, all right, make that read about 40 % of our students anywhere. And we want more students to know that four out of every 10 that start with us deserve to be here and that they can be here.

Gary Stocker (12:01.102)
without the benefit of actually graduating. Again, that's me saying that. Regardless of where they come from or where they are headed, say Dr. Michael Poglisi, the provost at Emory & Henry University, this change reflects our commitment to serve the, my words, 40 % of students and communities of Southwest Virginia and beyond, preparing 40 % of graduates, again, my words, who will use their education to make an impact here or wherever their paths take them.

So concludes Dr. Puglisi. So as the talented Jeff Salingo says so often, this is a buyer, B-Y-U-E-R, buyer college. They are buying students on price. It's clearly not on quality. They can't graduate even half their students in four years. It's not on quality. They're trying to get students in the door, in part to say we're getting students in the door, in a part, in my mind, the vain hope.

that that will lead to better financial results and it's not going to. Bluffton. Bluffton University. Similar theme, different words. Bluffton University announces new affordability initiatives for incoming students. This is from Stacy Myers Cooks, September 29th. Hometownstations.com was the web page. ABC Fox was listed in the header. I know what ABC Fox is.

I don't know how many times I continue to have to do, will continue to have to do stories like this. A college engaging in management by PR, management by public relations, trying to sell a college based on price, and not, again, not acknowledging pathetic four-year undergraduate graduation rates, averaging less than 50 % from 2016.

to 2023, Bluffton University president, Sider, says Bluffton University has consistently ranked as a top performer for social mobility.

Gary Stocker (14:09.794)
Lord knows where these rankings are coming from. They're certainly not taking into account outcomes. Less than 50 % graduate in four years.

Gary Stocker (14:24.322)
and they talk about high graduation rates for Pell Grant students. Any chance they don't share the numbers? Any chance Bluffton University, drop me a note and actually share those high graduation rates?

Here's the quote from the president, Alex Sider. Bluffton University has consistently ranked as a top performer for social mobility in Midwest regional colleges and shown high graduation rates in Pell Grant eligible students. Send me the information. I had somebody from Bethel University kind enough to actually do the follow-up here recently. Send me the information. I'll say next week what that number is. If you choose not to share it.

I can guess that there's some poetic license in the way you define high graduation rates. Let's change the themes, get away from tuition resets or whatever people call them these days, focus on enrollment. A local university, this is from Morgan Mungillo on WKRC on September 30th. Local university launches new program offering minimum of $30,000. Here's what to know.

All right, I think I want to add an illusional college story for today's podcast. This is Xavier University. This is a delusional, a delusional story. This new program provides $30,000 in discounts for GPAs of 3.5 or greater for any Ohio student. It's also happening right as a freshman class has 17, 17, 17 percent fewer students this fall than last.

Here is the delusional part, the delusional part. Clyde, excuse me, Scott Clyde, who is the vice president for strategic enrollment at Xavier University. what's strategic enrollment? I would just be happy to have somebody enrolling students that are graduating. Scott Clyde, VP for strategic enrollment at Xavier University hopes to increase enrollment from 800 freshmen students, this is from the story, 800 freshmen students this fall.

Gary Stocker (16:35.981)
Maybe, unlikely, and are they prepared to give away the store in terms of tuition discounts? Discounts in excess of, I don't know, 55, 60 % just to get students in the door. And then Mr. Clyde goes on to say...

Gary Stocker (16:55.182)
Mr. Clyde goes on to say, think we'll get ourselves over a thousand next year, said Clyde. Scott Clyde, vice president for strategic enrollment. Xavier also plans to introduce, get this, Xavier plans to introduce almost 40, 40, that's four zero, 10 times four, new undergraduate majors, minors and certificates in the coming years, no date reference, with many focusing on such things as AI, cybersecurity and

Health Science.

20 % increase is what they're hoping for, planning for, in 2026 in a shrinking market, the shrinking higher education market in a state with way too many colleges.

adding 40 new programs in the coming years, whatever that means. 40 new programs, really?

Really in a shrinking market, where the only guarantee when adding new programs is startup costs are not guaranteed. No college is guaranteed materially significant new net revenue. When they add stuff, they're only guaranteed startup costs. And even in the unlikely event, even in the unlikely event that Zayba University gets a winner or two or three out of these 40 programs, even if they do, it's going to be copied by others.

Gary Stocker (18:22.798)
And nothing wrong with that, just say it happens. That's going to put pressure on tuition discounts. That's going to put pressure on net tuition revenue. Page three. More colleges promise graduate employment or grad school placement. Now, this is from Bethlehem University. And this is just by coincidence. They were on the podcast a couple of weeks ago with some comments that I had, and they're the ones that responded. Tim Hammer, I believe it was. Bethlehem University in Minnesota. Although the story doesn't say that, I think this is the Minnesota version.

Bethel University guarantees undergraduates a job on campus or a spot in one of its graduate programs if they haven't found something better six months after graduation. This is a story from Ashley Moe Reader, September 16th in Inside Higher Education. So I spent some time pondering this story. And as regular listeners know,

I have a genetically jaundiced outlook on college media stories. Too much management by PR. And I guess what this story does suggest, even though it's on a really small scale, what it does suggest is an attempt to address the outcome issues in higher education. And of course, I've talked about that many times already just today, in addition to week after week, to address the outcome issues.

and certainly graduation rates are not come. But really, and this is kind of the new part, so is that first post-college job search.

Gary Stocker (20:01.866)
One of my, I'll digress for a second, one of my pay it forward efforts involves working with some college student athletes to prepare them for that first post-college job or professional degrees. Some of them are looking at medicine. And trust me, these are fine students. They are fine human beings, sharp young men, young women that still need substantial and substantive guidance. I enjoy doing it. I love doing it. I'm going to continue doing it.

Gary Stocker (20:34.232)
But for a college to undertake a systemic program, like is being proposed here and a couple of other places in this story, for a college to undertake a systemic program to work with graduates who have not found a job after like six months, in my mind, this falls into the category kind of of a day late and a dollar short. That preparatory work for these students needs to be done while they're on campus, like I'm doing.

Not at the end, not as the end of the college career gets closer. Now, is this more management by PR? Well, on the surface, it's easy to say yes. Certainly, there's a chronic history of that in higher education. Yet, be prepared to fall out of your chairs. In this case, I want to award the college viability A, the grade of A for initiative, at the very least.

At the very least, these types of stories reinforce what I have shared many, many times. Colleges focus on enrollments, not on outcomes, graduation rates and job placements. Now, maybe, I'm not so sure by far, maybe there is starting to be some movement toward the recognition that too many colleges, almost all colleges, too many colleges leave outcomes off the table, period.

And in many cases, too late do they try and work on those outcomes. And I understand these colleges have some tight conditions. They have some challenging specs that they make these students or want these students to go through. And at Bethlehem University, the students must complete these phases of career preparation prior, it can't be prior, but that's what it says, prior to graduation. I think it has to be after graduation. Create a handshake profile.

That's the placement website. Meet with a career development coach. I presume that's an employee at the university. Participate in an internship. I presume, doesn't say that the college helps them find it. No word on that. And students must meet with a career coach monthly. Again, I presume, I'm assuming, I know the danger in that. Assuming that that is a college provided resource. And the last one, apply for at least 20 jobs per month.

Gary Stocker (23:02.136)
to complete the final phase, to get that guarantee that the college offered, either six months after graduation or a graduate program for the college. I don't see an amount here. I thought I had an amount, but I don't see an amount reference for income. My apologies on that. So 20 jobs per month is essentially one per business day. You're applying at least one per business day.

Not impossible for sure. Many do more than that, I'm guessing. But those are not unreasonable.

requirements, as I pause to ponder, but they are certainly challenging for 22 year olds, 23 year olds.

to manage while just getting out of college and probably with some anxiety associated with finding that first job. And none of these institutions reference, Bethel and others reference in the story. And again, I'll have the link to the story in the show notes. None of these institutions differentiates among the types of job a student may secure, making no distinction, no distinction between a part-time role

or one that doesn't require a bachelor's degree, leaving some questions, interesting here, again, this from the store, this is not me, leaving some questions about the underemployment of college graduates. CNBC News, published by Jessica Dickler on September 30th. A perfect storm, more colleges at risk as enrollment falls and financial pressures mount. All right, all right, I think I posted this one to LinkedIn.

Gary Stocker (24:44.018)
And I think I tease it's football season and one of the penalties in football is piling on, jumping on top of a tackle runner, also known as a late hit. And I'm guilty. I'm guilty of piling on here. There is no, there is no new news here. But it is yet another reminder, yet another reminder that this industry, this higher education industry is in decline.

there may be in my mind and what others have read and posted, excuse me, when others have posted somewhere in the vicinity of 200 colleges, 200 colleges immune to acute and chronic financial distress. However, there are hundreds and hundreds of other colleges with significant financial risk of either closure or significant program cuts and employee layoffs. And my biggest fear

is that students and families, the ones, the customers in higher education, students and families are not getting this at-risk, this college at-risk information.

And these students and their families will continue to choose colleges in significant financial distress. And again, I've got the relatively new site, mycollegeviability.com. Mycollegeviability.com. can get a free report on a college that you're looking at, or the public college version later, to see if they're graduating students, what the enrollment trends are, and some other aspects as well. four. This is the restaurant story that I...

that I let off with on the show. Beth Acres and the Dispatch, this is from the American Enterprise Institute on September 23rd, America's distorted market for higher education. I'm going to read what Ms. Acres shared in large part. Another barrier, Beth Acres writes in American Enterprise Institute, another barrier to functioning markets in higher education is the way that colleges set the cost of enrollment. We've talked about this before. Imagine if restaurants, Ms. Acres says,

Gary Stocker (26:50.816)
Imagine if restaurants didn't list prices on their menus. You would find out the cost only after you ordered and it would depend on your income on how much the restaurant charged you and how much the restaurant wanted you there.

goes on that is essentially how college pricing works.

Schools advertise a sticker price that very few students pay. Instead, students receive individualized financial aid packages that vary by family income, academic merit, and the institution's own priorities. This, Beth Acres writes, makes it nearly impossible for students and families to compare and shop. Applying to college, of course, is costly. A little bit less so, but costly and time consuming for sure.

So most students consider only a handful of schools. All right, there's reasons to suggest they may be considering more, but all right. The lack of transparency dulls the competitive pressure that in other markets would push institutions to minimize costs and maximize value.

Miss Acres continues to add to that challenge students often don't have clear information on college outcomes. Welcome to the club, Miss Acres. Data on graduation rates and subsequent earnings have improved in recent years thanks to federal reporting efforts and independent research, that's me, but much remains murky. That makes it even harder to hold institutions accountable.

Gary Stocker (28:28.946)
consumer choice because they're not sharing. I had three stories, four stories today at least where colleges aren't sharing abysmal graduation rates. They're hiding that fact.

At least restaurants have review sources. I can't remember any of them off the top. And accreditation, she goes on. Accreditation further restricts the market. Students are now showing more interest in short-term training, such as boot camps, certificate programs, and on on. But many of these options don't qualify for federal aid because they don't fit the traditional accredited mold. This means innovative programs, Beth Acres writes, which might better serve

Today's students and employers struggle to get off the ground. Accreditation was designed to protect taxpayers by keeping low quality providers out of higher education. I'm not going to go there, but in practice it often stifles innovation, keeping new models from having a chance to integrate and jump into the market. Further, accreditors have historically failed to weed out programs of schools that have failed students

either through poor employment outcomes after graduation or even instances of colleges unexpectedly closing their doors. And I'll add to that, financial health is...

Gary Stocker (29:51.662)
Financial health is not even considered in almost all cases. The creditor is just not doing a good job of serving consumers and warning them of those colleges and financial distress. regular listeners know you heard my chronic screeches about how ineffective and out of touch accrediting agencies have become. And this is yet another story, yet another story that builds on that.

Gary Stocker indictment. The part that Beth Acres discusses, where she discusses the tuition pricing model is right in the wheelhouse of my friend Mark Salisbury at tuitionfit.org. If you want to price compare, Mark has a fabulous site at tuitionfit, one word, tuitionfit.org. Check it out. There's a free version as well. And then a wrap this week is a story from Reuters. Reuters had a story, few foreign students, fewer dollars, US colleges.

feel the pinch and this story is all over. the folks at Reuters, Kaylee Kang, Jamie Dowdle, Helen Costner had this story on October 3rd. And Reuters spoke to administrators or spokespeople at 10 schools with consistently high foreign enrollment. And all of those reported declines, ranging from 1 % dip at the University of Illinois in Urbana-Champaign to a 19 % drop at the University of Buffalo.

Some 35 colleges have announced budget cuts. That's an interesting count on that. Some 35 colleges have announced budget cuts in response to Trump administration policies. Johns Hopkins University slashed more than 2,000 jobs. We had this story about WashU earlier on.

There's many stories like this out there and writers did a good job of summarizing this. Again, I'll have the story link in the show. And as I wrap up, and we've talked about this before, as I wrap up this week's show, let's remember.

Gary Stocker (31:51.074)
Let's remember that these brand name colleges have already started dipping into their admission waitlist.

They're dipping into that admissions wait list to increase their enrollment. More than welcome to do that. These brand name colleges may have and they do have some financial cuts, but at the end of the day, they are brand names. They are recognized names. There are places that we talk about regularly. They can more easily bring in students, these maybe 200 colleges.

But the hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of non-national brand name colleges don't have that luxury. They are at the sharp end of the sword with little leverage other than tuition discount pricing to increase their enrollment. And then of course, that's good for the students, not necessarily so good for the colleges. And those 50 to 60 % tuition discounts are increasingly draining revenue.

needed to provide a quality education and even I would argue getting more students to that four year graduation rate.

And let's wrap up with an ugly higher education story. I had someone share a story with me recently about a college professor. I think it was an online version, I'm not sure, who did not know how to use his colleges, his or her colleges learning management system.

Gary Stocker (33:23.214)
didn't know how to use it. As a result, this professor was not posting grades well into whatever current term was going on. Students were screaming to see their scores and grades, and the professor was unable, unskilled enough to do so. What does that, what does that say about a quality education?

What does that say about a quality education or the needed systems and processes to weed out unskilled or under skilled faculty? This is a troubled, troubled, troubled industry. And this is an ending podcast. Hey, as always, thanks for making time to listen to the podcast. Make sure to share the podcast link with friends, family, neighbors, and other higher education professionals. And I'll be back next Monday with another podcast episode of This Week in College viability.