This Week In College Viability (TWICV) for Oct 13 2025
Gary Stocker (00:00.98)
It is Monday, October 13, 2025, time for yet another episode of This Week in College Viability News and Commentary. Hi, everybody. Gary Stocker behind that Blue Yeti microphone. And of course, this is the podcast that talks about the financial health and viability of public and private colleges with data and with details and with perspectives, I believe, are offered nowhere else. And as always,
I encourage you to forward this podcast link to your higher education friends or your neighbors or your family or your relatives, others who might see value in this. No sense. No sense in just you getting the latest news and commentary on this whole troubled industry. Now, each week I wade through dozens and dozens of higher ed stories from either referrals from others or from my own Google alert searches that I have in place.
The stories and commentary that make it onto the podcast are my best judgment of what my growing audience wants to hear. For example, there was an Ohio private college president this past week that posted a line that said, and I quote, just as culture eats strategy for breakfast, backbone beats brand.
Backbone beats brand. Now, I don't know what that means. I know what the first part means. I've used that many times before. I don't know what the last part means. Backbone beats brand. Maybe if this college president, I'm not going to identify him, knows what it is, they can reach out to me. He was trying to create a perception that his college was doing well. And as I usually do, always do, I go to the data and after a review of their four-year graduation rates and some financial indicators, I passed. I passed on this story.
Not that it shouldn't be told because just the backbone beats brand was worth some giggles, but there are other similar stories that I can and do use. And by the way, the data, this Ohio private has been increasing its endowment draw above the typical four to 5 % target and has a 15 % negative, that's red in the red, 15 % net income margin for the period 2016 to 2024.
Gary Stocker (02:23.928)
They're not doing that. They're not going to close. But they have financial challenges. it's almost, know, it's prototypical of colleges engaging in chronic lack of transparency. It's almost an industry-wide, if there is such a thing, an industry-wide genetic predisposition to spin half stories. But of course, that is why I'm here.
I am fully transparent. I use the data. I am objective. I am your higher education quality control resource. Colleges spin. That's fine. They're going to do it. I reverse the spin and get that true story out. This week I continue and it's not going to end anytime soon. I continue to see an increasing number of layoffs and cutbacks announced. I'll have details. For example, Harvard is among those on my list this week.
A story about private colleges are pitching free tuition to middle class students. Will it make a difference? I've got some comments on that. Two New Jersey public universities just took a huge step toward a mega merger and ending surprise bills in higher education.
Gary Stocker (03:40.462)
It's the surprise that comes from grants and aids and those kind of things. And then I'm going to wrap up with Requiem for College, the book by Jonathan Nichols. He had a review in Forbes, good review in Forbes. I'm going to talk about that as well. Layoffs and cutbacks. Western Washington University enrollment drops with smallest first year class since 2020. Officials say enrollment growth initiative will increase students because yes, we've made more 18 year olds since last week.
going to go that will go to college. And I know that there are people that are older than 18 that start college, but that's a typical focus. And enrollment growth, as I've said many times, not a realistic option. This was from Charlotte Alden in October 10th in Casca Daily.
Gary Stocker (04:32.609)
Cascadia Daily in Washington. And they welcome 2,690 students. This fall, it was the smallest group since 2020, and it was at 3,000 and change. It's the smallest student population that Western Washington has served since all the way back in 2007, 18 years ago. Harvard. Hugo Chiasin and William Mao had a story on October 9th in The Crimson. That's a Harvard publication.
And it noted that Harvard will lay off roughly 25 % of staff. Now there's details here. 25 % of staff represented by its clerical and technical workers union at a single school. And this is the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, SEAS. And it will reorganize several offices in response to mounting funding pressures. SEAS Dean David Perks did not specify how many employees were laid off or which offices would be organized.
Again, why be transparent? Sarcasm, sorry. And university and SEA spokespeople declined to offer details on the last. private organization, I understand. They're entitled to do that.
The Boston Globe had their own source. said 40 people were laid off. All right. So be it. It's just if you want to if you want to build trust, you become transparent. And if you don't want to build trust, you you're not transparent and you let third parties like me bring these stories to light. Northern Kentucky is next on the list. Andy Brownfield at the Cincinnati Business Courier on October 8th. Northern Kentucky University to eliminate some positions to address budget shortfall.
President Cady or Katie Short Thompson, Katie Short-Thompson made the announcement in an email to the college community on October 6th. She wrote that lower than anticipated state funding, a change in Kentucky's delinquent collections practices. That's interesting. And lower graduate and international student enrollment in the fall necessitated the moves. It noted that it would eliminate Northern Kentucky University and KU would eliminate less than 1 %
Gary Stocker (06:44.224)
of its total workforce to keep the budget balanced. Now, I don't see a number here of the amount they need to balance. One percent seems awfully small. Again, she did not detail how many positions. Maybe they don't know. Maybe they don't know. I hope that's not the case. Or what the reductions in NKU's operating budget. In detail, she did note, this is the president, Katie Short-Thompson. She did note that the university is not freezing hiring and several key positions are still
Accepting applications again, where, where, where has the transparency gone? Carnegie Melligan University, the list continues, was laid off 75 staffers. This is from Maddie Aiken in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette on October 8th. Carnegie Melligan laid off 75 staffers in its Software Engineering Institute, about 10 % of the Institute's total workforce. The decision came almost two months after CMU President Farnam Dehanian.
wrote to the campus community that the elite university's financial position is strong, but the school still faces existential challenges and continued uncertainty. So I'm guessing he wants his cake and to be able to eat it also. And it talks about some numbers of the amount that's reduced. Page two.
Claire Murphy in the Chronicle for Higher Education on October 8th had a story that headlined, private colleges are pitching free tuition for middle-class students. Will it make a difference? Ms. Murphy writes that about, this is again, this is at Emory University, believe, at Emory University, about 3,100 out of a little over 7,000 students receive financial assistance through something called Emory Advantage. 60 % are about 1,800.
of whom have scholarships already equal to or higher than the cost of tuition. Of course, higher than the cost of tuition, students have more cash available to be able to spend on living, is my understanding. Under the new Emory Advantage Plus, this number is expected to grow to nearly 80%. So from 1800 to about 2400, expanding Emory's financial commitment to more than $1 billion over the next four years. Now, the university's endowment in 2020
Gary Stocker (09:02.574)
I believe, was $11 billion, up to $2 billion, $2 billion with a B since 2020. And Emory's interim president, Leah Ward Sears, said this, when students sit at the kitchen table with their parents to discuss college, I don't want finances to be a consideration, Leah Ward Sears, Emory's interim president. She went on to add, if they qualify to come to Emory,
and they want to come to Emory, we will make sure they can afford Emory. okay, again, private organization, they can do what they want.
Gary Stocker (09:44.808)
I continue to struggle with the financials on this, or even the financial model for the college for Emory. And Emory is subsidizing the tuition heavily for these students. Nothing wrong with that. They're more than entitled to do that as they deem fit. But it's kind of in my mind, kind of like saying when a family discusses buying a new house, that price won't be a consideration.
And in a world of unlimited resources, that would be fine. In reality, it's both an impractical and potentially reckless approach.
to a student and their family even make to one of the largest financial investments a family or student will ever make. And while the sentiment behind this statement may be understandable, wanting the best for your child and the college wanting to offer access without limitations.
I believe it's logically flawed. I believe it's flawed because it treats a major financial and life transaction as if it has no financial consequences.
A more logic sentiment or statement could be when students sit at the kitchen table with their parents to discuss colleges, they find the best possible institution for their goals at a price that a family can reasonably afford. This kind of approach acknowledges, I think, the importance of the decision while grounding it in financial reality, which is a lifelong necessity. And if these students, these 1,800 to 2,400 students at Emory,
Gary Stocker (11:25.846)
if they don't have any financial skin in the proverbial game.
What percentage of those students will treat this free or almost free education without the regard it deserves because they don't have that skin in the game?
Kyla Scanlon, theargumentmag.com, October 10th. What happens to college towns after a peak 18-year-old? Kind of strange headline. And Ms. Scanlon writes, as the supply of young people dries up, well, 18-year-olds dry us up. We didn't make enough babies back in 2017, 18. Towns built around America's higher education system, Ms. Scanlon writes, we'll learn what happens when students
stop coming, it's already happening. This is just kind of a follow-up story. And Ms. Scanlon does a good job of citing some data, and this is on the public side. The National Student Clearinghouse, the NSC, shows that public four-year undergraduate headcount has been roughly flat over the last decade, from 7.5 million to 7.4 million over the last 10 years, give or take. But flat, she argues, doesn't mean stable as an entity.
public colleges. It means many schools, she argues, it means many schools are treading water while others drown. Again, this is Miss Kyla Scanlon on theargumentmag.com on October 10th. The pandemic, she writes, accelerated some trends and masked others. She noted with interest, I think, the share of undergrads at four year schools, the share of undergrads at four year schools pursuing their degree entirely remote.
Gary Stocker (13:13.518)
entirely remote jump from 13 % in 2015 to almost 21 % in 2022. That's three years ago. Again, that's according to the National Student Clearinghouse. And she makes the point that's probably a goldmine for schools with popular online programs, Arizona State, Southern New Hampshire, and those likes. But it's sucked students out of smaller traditional campuses that once sustained local economies. Now, I don't see any data sourced on this. This is Ms. Scanlon's conclusion, so that's fine. She's entitled.
So what happens next? I've asked this question before and I don't know that anybody knows. Economist Nathan Grahe, he have the famous demographic cliff projection, has projected a 15, 1, 5 % decline in all college enrollment between 2025 and 2029. The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, WISHI, said it expects high school graduates to peak in 2025, that's this year.
then declined steadily across the Midwest, Northeast, and West. The South will grow slightly, Mr. Grau notes, but not enough to offset the national drop. The National Center for Education Statistics is by contrast comparatively upbeat. It predicted that undergraduate enrollment at both two and four year schools will increase going forward through 2031, reaching almost 17 million students. Who's right? The skeptics.
Ms. on the notes have history on their side. The NCES forecasts have consistently proven overly optimistic. And she even notes there's another wrinkle. There are new census projections based on the 2020 census count rather than the 2010 one that show not one demographic cliff, but two.
We'll experience a brief plateau around 2030, where the decline plans out a little bit, and then another fall off occurs in the mid 2030s. So folks, the consolidation period will continue. There's no way around it, unless economics is not a real law. Too many colleges, not enough students. Closures now. We know them. They're going to continue.
Gary Stocker (15:28.216)
Mergers and acquisitions have already started and they will continue, in my mind, to larger scale. At New Jersey dot com, NJ dot com, two New Jersey universities just took a huge step toward a mega merger. This is New Jersey City University that has and still has some significant financial challenges in Kean University. There's Kean University, K-E-A-N, also in New Jersey. Kean's governing board approved a definitive agreement to merge with
the other public, New Jersey City University. This was a couple days ago. Officials have at both schools said the process is expected to conclude by July 2026. That's faster than the original program plan for 2027. And the merger of the two publics would be the largest ever in New Jersey with Kane with enrollment of about 19,000, New Jersey City now about 5,500. Under the agreement,
Students at New Jersey City University would become students of Kane University. And New Jersey City University, I guess the physical location, would be renamed Kane Jersey City. Kane Jersey City University. there's money in the New Jersey budget, about $10 million for the legal, financial, and operational work in support of the merger. Now, these are two decent sized Publix.
that see the utility in scaling operations. They have looked at the numbers. They have made progress with their many, many stakeholders.
Will it be perfect? Absolutely not. But what will be perfect is the head start, the jump on the competition that both of these organizations will get over those competitors. Kane and New Jersey City will learn what works.
Gary Stocker (17:25.464)
They will learn what doesn't work, and they will figure out countless other details that will put them in my mind ahead of their competitors. And keep in mind, like I just said a minute ago, I still believe this industry is headed toward large-scale mergers when something like five to 20 colleges come together into one organization, probably with kind of holding company model for many reasons. Contact me if you want some more details on that. Page three.
Rachel Fishman at Newark America on October 9th had a story headlined, ending surprise bills in higher education. Ending surprise bills in higher education. Here's what she says. This is Rachel Fishman. Higher education has a complex pricing model, duh. Students often face higher sticker prices that are not realistic representations of what they will pay.
And once they receive their financial aid package, it can be hard to decipher exactly what's going on. There can be a mismatch between what their offer said and what they need to pay. As a chair of a congressional group, Burgess Owens said during a recent hearing, this is not, this is Burgess Owens saying this, this is not how major financial decisions are made in other parts of our economy. And he's right. Other major financial decisions like buying a home, purchasing a car,
getting health insurance, all come with easy to compare and legally required pricing disclosures. But colleges and universities have so far avoided the same requirements despite being one of the most expensive purchases students and their families will ever make.
She argues a federal action, a clear, standardized and common financial aid offer is needed to level the playing field nationwide. And apparently there is, and I know this to be true, bipartisan momentum in Congress to make that kind of transparency. Transparency, here's a word for you, transparency a reality. And then there was a study that both New America and You Aspire did in 2018 that most offers from colleges
Gary Stocker (19:44.011)
mixed together student loans and sometimes parent loans, grants and scholarships and work study into one lump sum, even though these sources of aid have very, very different terms and conditions. And they noted, she noted, the worst practices made it seem like the student was getting a full ride to college, when in reality their financial aid package maxed out their loans and their parents would also have to borrow significant amounts of money.
This is the second general instance of lack of financial transparency from colleges. Of course, the first is the colleges themselves and their chronic lack of financial health transparency and the focus on enrollment at any cost. And as I've said many times, neglecting in most colleges, more than half neglecting their abysmal, abysmal four year graduation rates. Page four is a wrap.
I've talked in previous podcasts about Requiem for a College. It's the second edition that Jonathan Nichols wrote about the closure of St. Joseph College in Rensselaer, Indiana, back in 2017. Derek Newton of Forbes wrote a review of the book and posted it, published it on October 7th. And it was entitled Requiem for a College, a heart-breaking tale and a crucial conversation. I'm going to read two paragraphs from Derek Newton's review of the book. And this is directly out of the book from Jonathan Nichols.
Nichols writes, I began my writing and research process in the spirit of prosecuting a case. I believed, he said, that there was a conspiracy to take St. Joseph's away from its students, faculty, and alumni.
Gary Stocker (21:34.688)
I found that absolutely was not the case. The suspension of operations.
Gary Stocker (21:44.386)
The suspension of operations was a result of decades, factors of decisions, and most importantly, indecisions. There was no plot, just a devastating end, Nichols said. Moving on a bit, Nichols said of the closure and his close study, and he did a fabulous job on this, get the book if you get a chance, I continue to marvel at how complex and nuanced
most major events like a college collapse tend to be. It's seldom, John Nichols writes, it's seldom the consequence of one person's actions, but instead many people's involvement, their mistakes, their naivete, their arrogance, their reckless indifference, and he concludes it's never one thing. And that's how I conclude it's never one thing. It's always the trends. It's always the patterns.
That's why the data that I put out, that's why the data that Matt Hendricks and others put out matters. It's the trends that matter. These things, these closures, these cutbacks and layoffs don't happen overnight. There's a trend behind them. And it's there almost every single time. And it's always the financial, it's always the enrollment, and it's always the graduation rate trends that jump out so obviously, so obviously. And let's use Power for football programs.
I'm going to cite what happened recently at Penn State, UCLA and Oregon State.
Each have fired their respective head football coaches. And in each case, at one point during their tenure, each have offered some version, each of those coaches have offered some version of I have to fix it. And that's in regards to their football team and their football program.
Gary Stocker (23:36.783)
and I have to fix it is very similar.
Very similar to what college leaders say when their colleges are in trouble. And here's the question I regularly asked. Why college leaders, why college boards? Why have you waited until now, when all the trends and patterns are available, why have you waited until now to recognize there are problems with your current systems and processes?
And like Jonathan Nichols said, it's seldom the consequences of one person's actions, but instead many people's involvements, their mistakes, their naivete, their arrogance, their reckless indifference. It's never one thing.
Transparency, transparency, and more transparency. I don't know that we'll get there, but again, that's why I'm here. Hey, for everybody making time to listen to the podcast, for everybody taking a couple of seconds to transfer the link, to send the link for the podcast to others, I'm grateful. I'm always interested in your feedback. Drop me a note to Gary at College Viability with feedback, good, bad, or indifferent. I'm always eager for that kind of feedback. And I'll be back next Monday on October 20th with another episode of This Week in College Viability.