This Week In College Viability (TWICV) for May 4, 2026
Gary D Stocker (00:01.342)
It is May 4th, 2026. Welcome back to another episode of This Week in College Viability News and Commentary. Hi, everybody. Gary Stocker sitting in front of the Blue Yeti Microphone and the Smooth Running Riverside.fm Podcast site. And I want to lead off with a story from last Friday. And it's about a softball game, a college softball game and honeybees.
Now, I am the guy who pokes the higher education bear. I know that others describe it worse than that. But trust me, higher education is a bear that needs to be poked. However, on this show, I have regularly talked about the millions of college students past and present that have gained great value from their college experience. This past Friday, two Division 1 NCAA Division 1 women's softball teams
had a bee event, BEE. Honey bees in the thousands swarmed the outfield and ended up covering a small section in the right field fence. The X video, I'll include that in the show notes, shows the right fielder for the home team running away from this bee swarm. Now a beekeeper eventually came and removed the bees. I guess there must be a 911 for beekeepers.
But that's not the story. During the delay, each team taught the other team cute little dances that college students do. And it ended in a mixed team line, girls from each team sitting next to other, toes to toes, bottom of feet to bottom of feet in two lines. And they were singing the song, and some of the lyrics were, you and me going fishing off the dock.
and ended with the words in context, stay the whole night through, feels so good to be with you. Now again, you've got to see the video to watch these girls doing it. on X.
Gary D Stocker (02:08.713)
And then this is really a song. It's an old song from 1987. The Nitty Gritty Dirt Band had the song entitled Fishing in the Dark. And apparently it was hit back then. For some reason, college age students are still singing it now. But think about the context. Opposing teams playing a sport at a high level interrupted by a very strange circumstance. And what do they do? What do they do? They come together in an experience.
in an event that will last a lifetime. Again, watch the video. It is produced well. It is cute, quite entertaining. If you want to search for it, go to X and search on wannabe best friends, W-A-N-N-A, wannabe best friends on X. And of course, I'll include the link in the show notes. College is good. College is good for millions. Make no mistake about it.
It is not good, college is not good for those who attend college with insufficient resources, insufficient academic preparation to provide a consistent and gain and earn a consistent and quality college education. There are still way too many colleges, way too many colleges, and I will continue to point that out as the market shakes out until we get that better mix, better match of students of colleges and students
willing to go to those colleges. What else do we have this week? St. Augustine's in North Carolina declares bankruptcy but won't close. Okay, we'll talk about that. Hempstead College, which just recently announced its closure to sell its campus, campus land to pay a $25 million debt. I'll have some comments on that. In Illinois, the number of high school graduates is expected to plunge 32%. The lawmakers in Illinois still want more college money. You'll be stunned.
at the data behind that. And a strange, what appears to me, shot in the dark strategy at Naropa University in Colorado. And then finally, a faculty associate at Hampshire College wrote a from the heart piece entitled Cowardice, Cowardice in the Closing of Hampshire College. I'll read part of that and share my thoughts as well. And again, don't be a podcast hog. Share.
Gary D Stocker (04:35.831)
Share the podcast link with your higher education friends, with your colleagues, with your family and friends, and especially those looking at college for their loved ones, whether it's now or in the coming years, coming months and years as well. Let's move on, layoffs and cutbacks. The University of North Texas approves buyouts for professors and faculty as it tackles budget shortfalls.
The story is by Jessica Priest on May 1st at the Texas Tribune. And her story notes, Jessica Priest's story notes, the University of North Texas approved buyouts for 40 faculty members. A move officials say will soon save up to 4.7 million, but that only covers a fraction of the projected $45 million shortfall. So I did the data on this. I looked at the numbers.
and the enrollment is up 8,000 students. The graduation rate, four-year graduation rate is around 60 % over the last eight years. Admission yield is way down, down 13 points from 37 to 24%. It could be just more applications, but for some reason, and I don't know why, some reason accepted students are not going to the University of North Texas. Records obtained by Ms. Priest show that 44 professors and tenured administrators
and other long-term instructors applied for buyouts during the application window that closed on April 10th. Page two.
St. Augustine, and we've had them on the show before, I've got to call them a frequent flyer on this week, St. Augustine declares bankruptcy but won't close. The beleaguered university will automatically lose eligibility for federal financial aid, so current students will have to finish their degrees at other institutions. Catherine Nott had the story at Inside Higher Education on the 28th of April.
Gary D Stocker (06:39.177)
And what's going to happen here, we saw this with Martin University last December when Martin University announced a pause in operations. didn't call a closure at first. They called their pause in operations. And then a few weeks later, sent out a note that they couldn't pay faculty and staff and that students had to find their own next college. And I got to expect something similar at St. Augustine's. What is going on with these boards and these college leaders that they can't face?
facts.
Just stunning. Just stunning. Another recently closed or announced closure, Campus Hampshire College to sell campus and land to pay a $25 million debt. There's no actual bids on this. the $25 million, I don't know where that's coming from. Patrick Fergus and Ryan Trowbridge had the story in Western Mass News on the 30th of last month. I don't know. Can they get $25 million for the land? I can't even remember where it is, but I think it's
pretty good land, but I'm not sure it's close to any urban areas. I'll follow that story for you. And to Illinois, we don't do Illinois much, but their number of high school graduates in that state is expected to plunge 32 % over the next few years. And lawmakers still want more money for colleges. Josh Bandock had the story on April 23rd at ellenroypolicy.org. House Bill 1581.
1581 would boost state money to the state's public universities by 135 million a year, well, over the next 15 years. Meanwhile, in the same timeframe, the number of high school graduates in Illinois is forecast to fall 32 % in that same time period.
Gary D Stocker (08:30.605)
Illinois colleges, Illinois colleges, Mr. Van Dock notes, are already funded at twice the national average.
At the same time, research has found that Illinois public universities provide the Midwest's lowest median return on investment, only $112,000 in change. Less than half of South Dakota's 216,000 in change, almost 217.
Gary D Stocker (09:00.663)
Illinois colleges charge the region's highest, ninth highest, excuse me, ninth highest in-state tuition fees at 14,000, almost $15,000 per year. And that doesn't include room and board and other costs. And not even half, not even half of Illinoisans who enroll in a four-year public university in that state earn a degree within six years.
Gary D Stocker (09:30.007)
just catastrophically tragic.
And here's my comment. This is an absolutely dysfunctional state. Just I'm stopping there. Missouri S &T applications to drop due to AI and international shifts in enrollment. Alex Barton had the story on May 2nd for KTVI Channel 2 in St. Louis. First of all, credit for Missouri S &T for sharing bad news, but the spin is still there.
A spokesperson essentially blamed this situation on the same one other universities are facing, AI and International Enrollment Falls. Despite the dip in applications, the university said overall student demand remains solid. And university officials noted that the incoming classes numbers and student deposits match up closely with the past two years. Didn't see any number on that. They also note that the S &T retention is strong with rates near 90%.
That's well above the national average, according to the university. Now, there's no data points in the first two paragraphs. It's just take our word for it. But when there's really good news with the 90 percent retention, they do find a time and words to pat themselves on the back for a really good retention number. But you've got to wonder why they even wrote this. It's almost a non-story, but they're spinning it.
And I will say to colleges like Missouri S &T, spin it if you must. I've said this before, spin it if you must. But you're just damaging your credibility when folks like me point out the spin. Page three. Confusing financial aid, confusing financial aid offers can leave families deeper in debt. Student groups say a fix doesn't go far enough.
Gary D Stocker (11:39.256)
So Siri interrupted me, my apologies. Meredith Kladner had the story on April 30th at Hackenger. essentially this is story about what higher education thinks about its students. Confusion about what they owe, no big deal. Unexpected expenses, no big deal. More college debt than expected, hey, live with it, life is tough. This was originally legislation to make it easier to read and...
to college financial aid letters. The higher education industry, through an affiliate, rose up and effectively said, tough beans, we need your money, even if you can't figure out how much money you will owe us. This is a slap in the face to millions of college students and their families. And a gentleman by the name of Emmanuel Guillory, who is the senior director of government relations,
at the American Council on Education, which represents colleges, says every institution is different. They don't offer the same programs. They don't have the same mission. They're not the same size. They don't serve the same students, said Guillory. So how are you going to have one mandatory offer letter that's the exact same when institutions offer different types of aid? I have two words.
Hogwash. This is simply an indication that higher education wants to find ways to drive increased revenue by not being upfront in a standardized format to make it easier for its customers to actually know how much they owe. Just, again, stunningly indifferent how this industry ignores the needs
of its students when it comes to finances.
Gary D Stocker (13:42.402)
Deloitte just dropped its 2026 Higher Education Trends Report. And if you work in or adjacent to higher education, it deserves a close read. The headline is America's Higher Education Sector is Poised for Reinvention as Declining Enrollment Under University Funding Cuts, Advancing AI and Evolving Regulations Reshape the College Landscape.
Let me define reinvention for you because I don't see Deloitte doing that. Let me define reinvention for you. So you've heard me say before we are in the consolidation era of higher education. Deloitte won't call it that because that may stress some of its clients. So reinvention is closures and mergers.
Delight does reference mergers in part of the story. And here is why its closures first.
So Matt Hendricks and I do the college financial health show every Tuesday, 1030 a.m. Central. And we do two colleges on most weeks. And recently, the last week or two or three, we did one on a college that is unlikely to survive. Now, we're never going to say a college will close. We're going to say it's risky. We're going to say it's high risk. We're going to note the numbers. And we had one where its finances were awful. And someone shared either the video
or our analysis with some faculty at this college that's not gonna survive. Their response, this is third hand, their response was, you're all wrong. You're all wrong, these faculty at this college in terrible financial shape. Said you're all wrong. Now, let's talk about wrong in context. I don't know that I've shared, but for 20 years I was a little league baseball umpire. So I have been wrong.
Gary D Stocker (15:41.577)
I have called balls that were strikes and strikes that were balls and I have called outs that were safe and safe that were outs. I've been wrong.
But think about this for a second. used to, I'm okay being wrong, but that's not the case here. We use data from this college's audited financial statements and 990s and iPads data. Matt and I have done this show weekly for almost two years, it'll be in August, and approaching 200 colleges reviewed. And it is so clear which colleges are financially strong, which ones will survive, maybe not financially strong, but will survive, and which ones are watching
their last dollars circle the financial drain.
Yet here is an anecdotal story, I understand, an anecdotal story that shows how uninformed and delusional faculty can be, and in this case are.
Gary D Stocker (16:40.129)
These faculty almost certainly will be shocked when their college closes and it will close.
They will express outrage that they weren't informed. Protests will occur. People will sit in the president's office. Alumni will rush to their defense and say, let us save you. I know that because it happens every time a college closes. And yes, closures will continue at colleges like this when those with some semblance of financial health, there are hundreds and not thousands,
with some semblance of financial health, finally read the market and realize standalone colleges cannot survive in almost all cases, mergers, and I believe large scale mergers, 10 or more colleges, that will be the reinvention that Deloitte references.
Gary D Stocker (17:37.73)
Let's go to Colorado. And again, this is week two of doing the podcast from Colorado Springs, the new headquarters of College Viability, new world headquarters of College Viability. Colorado's Naropa University to reduce tuition to attract a normal growth. All right, we've seen this kind of story before. Naropa seeks to grow enrollment through tuition reduction, flat tuition rate, expanded transfer credit opportunities. Olivia Doak had this story.
prairie mountain media dot com and the Boulder Daily Camera on April 29th. And I think I posted last night something to this effect on LinkedIn and other social media. This is a strange, strange shot in the dark strategy.
Naropa, let's go to the data, Naropa University's tuition and fee revenue has actually increased from 2016 to 25. It's up about $7 million. Enrollment is up almost 200 students in that same time period. But there are much bigger financial issues at Naropa College than tuition and fee revenue. Total net assets and unrestricted net assets, cash if you will, have decreased in the last 10 years.
They have had operating losses in the last four reported years. And like many other colleges, this suggests an expense issue, and it is, I'll look at the data. And the endowment at Naropa College is just pennies over $4 million. Just $4 million and a small amount of change. That was in 2025. That's not even pennies in the couch cushions.
And let's not forget, and I talked about this before, that many parents prefer the high cost, high discount tuition model. They enjoy sharing with friends and family that their child got a large scholarship to go to college.
Gary D Stocker (19:37.294)
What was not in the story, because you got to have me to do this, auditors in the last audited financial statement for Naropa College in Boulder, Colorado, auditors write these conditions, and they talked about the finances at Naropa, these conditions raise substantial doubt about the university's ability to continue as a going concern, stay alive, over the next 12 months from the issuance of the financial statements. However, the ad management has concluded
that the following factors have alleviated such doubt. Now, I'm not going to read the stuff at Management List. They issued a rebuttal citing assets they have sold and remaining assets they could sell. However, the closing line.
Gary D Stocker (20:29.837)
Closing line in the 2025 audited financial statement, management has concluded that these actions have alleviated the substantial doubt of the university's ability to continue as a going concern. I don't believe that for a second, but that's what they wrote. However, it concludes the university cannot predict with certainty the outcome of all the actions to generate liquidity. Be advised. This is me.
be advised this is a high-risk college for consideration.
Gary D Stocker (21:05.957)
And finally, page four, cowardice and the closing of Hampshire College. Fawn Albert, who wrote this, is co-director of the writing program and a faculty associate at Hampshire College. This was written on the 28th of April in the Chronicle of Higher Education. I'm gonna read her two paragraphs.
And yet I wonder, wonder, Miss Albert wrote, I wonder is it better to exhaust every possible avenue before finally giving up and being forced to come to an awful, messy, and frankly disrespectful end, an end that does not reflect Hampshire's values of community and equity in the slightest. If the powers that be had looked themselves in the face,
and had been honest and let go of ego, maybe they could have closed the college in a much more dignified way. Maybe students would not be scrambling, as they also try to finish classes, to not only fill out transfer and financial aid applications, but also make sense of the incredibly confusing teach-out process. Maybe staff and faculty would not suddenly face the loss of their employee-sponsored health insurance.
with just two months to prepare. Maybe all the time spent on programmatic and curricular work this past year could have been put to better use. I could go on and on, Ms. Albert writes. And she concludes, and I'll read this word for word. I can tell you from my perspective, as an alum and faculty member, I would have preferred to have a year's notice, or at least a semester's notice before closing
in order to make good memories and figure out what the next steps are while not under extreme duress. I think if we were really honest with ourselves, most of us now facing imminent joblessness would probably agree. It's a hard choice to make, I realize, but if the future is as bleak as it apparently was for Hampshire, then choosing to close earlier.
Gary D Stocker (23:22.625)
would not have been an act of giving up, but one of courage and compassion.
I'm going read the opening line from this in my rap. The opening line reads, administrators chose hope over honesty. The rest of us are suffering because of it. And let's give credit, a lot of credit, to Ms. Albert for stepping up at a very emotional, very trying moment. She reinforces from personal experience what I have been talking about for years and I have not really heard
or read this sentiment directly from an impacted employee before. But she's correct. She's correct. How many times have I said the financial data shows a consistent negative trend over many years for colleges that subsequently announced their closure? The data is there. I talked about the college faculty members who ignoring it a minute ago. It's there. They're not going to survive.
And when that college closes, I'll probably come back and note that college. Just to point out, it's easy to see. What are these leaders and trustees thinking? Is it personal? Do they just not want the closure to take place on their watch? Are they even being rational? Are they even being rational in the face of both overall market conditions and the specific financial challenges at their institutions?
I could name a handful, more than a handful, of colleges off the cuff that are not going to survive.
Gary D Stocker (25:05.717)
almost all in the Midwest and Northeast. So here is what is almost certain to happen. In the face of an abject financial failure, colleges will continue, sadly continue, to keep that information close to the vest. They will only be forthright when the finances are so bad that they have no other choice but to express regret and announce a closure.
They will go as they have so many times before from we're fine, we're fine, we're fine to we're closing all on short notice. Students and faculty and communities will react with shock and disbelief.
I will conclude with how many more times, how many more times will this happen before students just stop considering small private colleges? And it may be happening already.
So let's do this again next Monday. We should be past the snow here at Colorado Springs. It's coming this week. Let's do this again next Monday. In the shadows of Pike Peak, I'm Gary Stocker with College Viability. Thanks, as always, for listening. We'll be back at it next week.