This Week In College Viability (TWICV) for July 7, 2025

Gary D Stocker (00:01.102)
It is Monday and of course that means another podcast episode of This Week in College Viability News and Commentary for this date July 7, 2025. Hi everybody, Gary Stocker back, I guess it's behind in front of the blue Yeti microphone. I can't really figure that out. With some more news and stories for the day. Santa Heights University announces closure. I'll have some details on that. Indiana colleges cut hundreds of lower Norman degree programs. I'll give other states away.

to measure and monitor that. Southwestern Seminary in Texas placed on 12-month probation keeps accreditation. La Salle University warned accreditation could be in jeopardy. And a set of public universities in Illinois focus on enrollment and not graduation, my words, not theirs. We're going talk about that in some detail. And we're going to start off, of course, with layoffs and cutbacks and this week closures. Santa Heights in Michigan.

This is from Wells Foster on June 30th, W-I-L-X in Adrian, Michigan, where Sienna Heights is located. And again, the enrollment is down 20%, down from 2,000 to 1,500 over the last eight years. Their four-year graduation rate is miserable at 30%, the six-year rate of graduating students only averaging close to 50%. So after six years, not, or barely half of the students.

At Siena Heights University, we're graduating not good. Percent admitted was around 70%, which I thought was low for a college in trouble. It's easier to admit more students, but they chose not to. Their unfunded institutional grants, you and I know that as merit aid and most scholarships, was up over $7 million. Again, colleges are welcome to do that. Students like that, because they get lower prices, but it doesn't help the college's financial health. Their net income margin at Siena Heights was down 10%.

negative 10 % in two of the last three years. Of course, that measures profitability even though, of course, we don't call it that in higher education. The endowment was really small at 14 million. It had grown nicely over the last few years but still really small. And then in 2023, the college took a 33-0 % draw, way, way, way, way, way too high. Of course, a normal draw somewhere in the vicinity of 4 to 5%.

Gary D Stocker (02:22.486)
and the total operating revenue was $39 million eight years ago, $39 million. In 2023, it was down to $34 million. Not a good scenario. And then a second story on that. Students' families weigh options as news of Michigan University closing came out of nowhere. Now, this is from Jackie Smith on MichiganLive.com. Now, not only when these stories come out, there's always going to be student shock. That's always the case.

But when I look at the data, it's usually easy to say, easy to it was coming. Less so for Siena Heights University. And the quote from the story is, in the months before the college closed, or announced it will close in 2026, students and families say there were a few telltale signs that the end was near. And I kind of have to agree with that a little bit. And here's why the signs that were there, the college wasn't about.

to share with others. It's that self-fulfilling prophecy that I've talked about many times. If a college says, if a college gives our faculty and students and families any warning that college closure is possible, it becomes more likely. So here's my guidance. Whether you're looking at a new school for the 2026 fall term or even before then.

The first factor in considering a college now needs to be its financial health, especially those that are rural, especially those that are small. Colleges are not going to be a reliable source of information about their own financial health for obvious reasons. My series of college viability apps and my majors completion app for students and families are both independent sources of information. Use them.

go the website collegeviability.com and I regularly get email requests from students and families. Matter of fact, I've got a couple to do today from students and families asking for information on colleges they are considering. And soon I'm going to have an automated format for that. So you can have either a freed and of course be a paid version to submit your college or colleges and get an easy to understand comparison and analysis of their financial health or lack thereof.

Gary D Stocker (04:44.504)
follow-up questions or questions you could ask, depending on the weaknesses of a college, depending on a weakness that the college might exhibit with something that follows as well, and everybody I talk to. There will be many more closures. If you have concerns about your current college or starting the process, like I said a minute ago, of choosing a college for the fall of 2026, go to the college viability website.

you will see a pop-up that will get your research started. To Indiana we go. Indiana colleges cut hundreds of low and normal degree programs ahead of a state mandate. Okay, Indiana is, Tennessee, maybe Texas are kind of leading this game a little bit. The state's higher education commission made the cuts on July, on official. The story was written on July 1st by Casey Smith at the Indiana Capitol Chronicle. So there's details to the story. As always, the story link will be in the show notes.

But the 2025 college majors completion app that I developed, it will tell you if a college you're at or considering has good numbers for any major you're considering. For example, and I've used this before, if you're looking at journalism as a major and you're looking at set of colleges and one of them has about five majors over the last four reported years in journalism and the other has 50 journalism majors that completed their course of study,

You choose the one with five, you run some risks of it being closed, and the College Major's Completion App will show you which ones are strong and which ones are not. To Texas we go. Southwestern Seminary placed on 12-month probation keeps accreditation. This is Michael Gabrask at MSN. And I can't even find much data on this college.

But now sarcasm alert, not to worry, not to worry. It's accreditor is going to give them yet another year to dot some I's and cross some T's. One can only wonder if that is in part due to the revenue they receive from these colleges. This week I've got a college dribble for you. D-R-I-V-E-L. Silliness from colleges. And this is from a college cutting back on majors. I'm gonna take a deep breath for this because it's deep.

Gary D Stocker (07:10.114)
The adjustments to curriculum, the school wrote in a fact sheet, are not about reducing academic opportunities, okay, but are about modernizing how this college delivers education in ways that preserve the college's distinctive strengths. That's always a tough sell. Distinctive strengths while creating more room for, get this, student agency, innovation, and adaptability. Now, to me, that sounds...

That sounds like an AI generated quote. And if it is, the least this college can do is edit some of the words so it doesn't sound like an AI generated quote. Page two, LaSalle University, Philadelphia.

Gary D Stocker (07:56.512)
story from Susan Snyder and Harold Brubacher, Hal Brubacher, in the Philadelphia Enquirer on July 3rd.

Here's a quote from the story. LaSalle University has been warned by the Middle States Commission on Higher Education that its accreditation might be in jeopardy regarding its compliance with planning resources as financial resources in part, and institutional advancement standards as fundraising. The school has until February 16th to show the Middle States that it's making progress. LaSalle had an enrollment and the inquirer does a good job here.

LaSalle had enrollment of 3,500 plus students in the last academic year, and that includes a 28 % drop in overall headcount in the last six reported years, though they say a first year enrollment rose substantially for the current year. All right, we'll give them that. The LaSalle president is Daniel J. Allen, and Dr. Allen, I presume, Mr. Allen.

LaSalle's president said in a campus message that LaSalle officials are well aware of the financial challenges the school faces and are taking appropriate steps to address them. Why now? Why the wait? But this is interesting because you don't always see this. The president, Mr. Allen, Dr. Allen, also said he was surprised and disappointed by the warning saying Middle States

A middle-state team had visited the campus earlier this year and given the school a glowing report that says something about this commission. A glowing report that indicated that the school appeared stunning, that the school appeared to meet all standards. Now, I'm not going to take credit for this, but I'm going to suggest, I'm going to suggest, and it's not likely, but it's still worthy of presentation.

Gary D Stocker (09:51.862)
because those regular listeners to the podcast know that I poke not only the higher education bearer, but the accreditation commissions as well. It's possible. It's possible. Still not likely. I can't believe I have that impact yet. But it's possible that Middle States has noted my accurate concerns and my accurate focus that they have on dotting I's and crossing T's on inputs and not outputs. And so...

I don't know. And again, the Inquirer did some good work on the sales finances. LaSalle had the biggest decline in net tuition revenue in the last eight reported years. It fell even further last year in fiscal 2024 to 45 million, half of what it was in 2015. That's a big drop. And to compensate, this is an interesting quote, to compensate the school had been relying on what Standard & Poor's global ratings had called,

Elevated endowment spending, you and I call that endowment draw, including several years of spending 8.6 % on the endowment. A more typical rate, again, as I shared earlier in the podcast, is somewhere around 5%, 4 to 5%, something like that. And again, the data is bad. I'm not going to bore you with it. The data is bad. The creditor is threatening, but will they come through based on the finances, based on how long the finances have been bad and getting worse?

LaSalle officials told the Inquirer last year that they were restructuring the academic enterprise, embracing the school's smaller size and building a more realistic budget. The school launched new academic programs, I don't see the list, including a sports management major and announced it was bringing back baseball, adding new sports for women, beefing up cheer and dance clubs, and starting a band. All right.

Again, why now? Why wait to start these projects? Even problematic ones like starting new stuff. As you've heard me say before, adding new programs in this day and age, the only guarantee that colleges have is startup costs, hiring faculty, marketing, travel, hiring coaches, and this competitive market, the capacity to even drive sufficient net, new net tuition revenue. While a little bit may be there,

Gary D Stocker (12:21.07)
When you balance the costs, there's research that suggests it's not a winning proposition. Page three, yet another college in trouble. trouble, Guilford College raises $5 million to meet accreditation standards, to meet accreditation demand. Excuse me, this is from Chris Burritt on businessnorthcarolina.com. So the net cash from operations at Guilford College, and this is in North Carolina, decreased about $15 million.

All right, so 15 million. So 5 million buys them what?

a year or so. What happens after that? Sure, they may have raised five million. Now, do they collect the five million or just get pledges? That's two different questions. And what happens after that? And I understand. And I shared this before and I will continue to share it. Closing a college is an emotional, closing a college is an emotional journey.

But there are enough colleges not living hand-to-mouth on cash like Guilford appears to be doing that students can choose. Why do colleges like Guilford and all the other financially stricken, on probation, financially challenged colleges insist on fighting what I think, what I believe is inevitable? Is this college and the others like it?

Are they looking out for their interests, for the college's interests, or are they looking out for the students' interests? The story goes on to say last month, Guilford leaders instructed the budget and faculty committees to whittle expenses in a spending plan for the fiscal year starting on July 1st. It needs to meet accredited requirements from the Southern Association of Colleges and Schools Commission on Colleges, and they reference bondholder covenants.

Gary D Stocker (14:18.54)
Nothing beyond that. And you've heard me say before, when the history, when the story is written about this period of college closures, we will find that it is the violation of bond covenants that were the ultimate demise, final demise, final factor in the demise of many, colleges. Page four.

Students in Illinois will be automatically admitted to colleges under a new law.

Eastern Illinois University, my alma mater, I had them in the show last week, is already trying that strategy out. This is July 6th from Emily Hayes at IPM News. I think it's an Illinois news source. And again, the focus here, the focus here is on enrolling a student, not graduating them. The graduation rates at Eastern Illinois, four years at 35%. Six years at about 50%.

And for the record, I did graduate in four years at Houston, Illinois. And I've teased about this before, no college I've heard anyway, at their May graduation, at their May commencement says, we are proud to announce we only graduated 35 % of the students who started at our college four years ago. Guys, darn it, I missed it again, a sarcasm alert post-presentation.

And here's Brittany Tierney, is Eastern Illinois director of admissions. I don't know Miss Tierney. And she says, is college right for me? Am I going to be accepted? We really want to take the guessing game out for students. That's creative. No work implied. We'll just accept you. And let me add another Gary Stocker college viability question. Maybe Miss Tierney, you can think about this one as well.

Gary D Stocker (16:15.874)
How likely is it, you might ask, yourself and the college? How likely is it I will graduate from this college period over four years or six years or there's even data for eight years? Fair question to ask. Let's wrap. Let's wrap. I'm going to continue with this theme. I'm going to wrap up on this enrollment versus graduation rate argument. And to do that, I'm going to introduce a story that Stephen Byrd, B-U-R-D,

from New America has written in his writing. In a series of three articles, and only the first one has been published, Mr. Bird does an exceptional job of documenting how in the early 2000s Baylor University started to focus on admitting students whose parents had to borrow extensively from the Parent PLUS Loan program. In most cases, Mr. Bird reports, these families didn't have anything close

to the resources to repay those loans. Mr. Bird goes on to make the case that Baylor enrolled those students anyway in the early 2000s and beyond, knowing full well that the college would get its money no matter what the completion outcome was for the students. And since only a very small percentage of the families paid back anything on those loans, only a small percentage of families paid back anything

taxpayers ultimately picked up the tab.

Baylor's focus was on enrollment at any cost.

Gary D Stocker (17:54.894)
to families, to the students. But to be fair, new leadership has changed their enrollment approach. Mr. Bird reports on this as well, positive development. And it appears that in the final two parts of the story, other college practices like this will be exposed. It'd be interesting to watch those stories. I've got Mr. Bird will be on a podcast special episode of this week sometime in the coming weeks.

You've heard me break ground on this enrollment versus graduation rate argument many times before. Too many colleges, too, too, too many colleges continue to focus on enrolling either academically unprepared or financially unable students.

They focus simply on ways to get students access to college. That's the theme these days, access to college, but not nearly enough focus on getting those same students through to a completed degree. And the consequences have been stated by many, and I won't go through those today. What's more important, getting the students in.

or getting them out with a degree.

Gary D Stocker (19:12.248)
Hey, let's call that a wrap. I'm Gary Stocker with College Viability. I'm coming back next week. That will be, boy, middle of July already. That will be July 14th. I'll be back with another podcast episode of this week in College Viability.