This Week In College Viability (TWICV) for September 30, 2024

Gary (00:01.87)
It's This Week in College Viability, News and Commentary for September 30th, 2024. Hi, it's Gary Stocker doing something that is the favorite part of my week, sharing news and providing commentary on the good, on the bad, and on the ugly in higher education. And let's start off this show today talking about the similarities between a high school reunion and higher education.

I went to my 50th high school reunion this past weekend. It was a small town in central Illinois. And there were 90 graduates in the Gibson City High School class of 1974. Yes, I am old. I counted 23 of those still surviving attending the event. Now I can remember when the reunions that my parents went to, and it was a big deal.

And it was a big deal for many of the high school reunions I have gone to over the years. I've gone to most of the every five one. That's the 50th this weekend. It is an anecdotal observation for sure. But I wonder if colleges are going the way of high school reunions. Both used to be really important, really important social events, really important learning events. And it appears that now

It appears that both are now fading away for many, many former high school students and current and future college students. Now, I understand that while culture changes, it usually changes very slowly. And that is what we're seeing in higher education. It's a culture where the perception of value, just like reunions over the decades, continues to diminish. And that, course, is shown by the 23

just the 23 that showed up for my high school reunion this past weekend in Gibson City, Illinois. So headlines this week. Elizabethtown College, fun place or not. Bradley University enrollment dips below 5,000 for the first time in 30 years. This is another example of a quality college with great graduation rates, still struggling with the finances. And high schools, high schools are closing too across the country.

Gary (02:22.594)
what will be the impact on colleges, and we'll have yet another college tuition reset using this time the age old adage, our college has been a secret too well kept for too long. Besides being an awkward sentence, that's not true. And California braces California campuses. California campuses brace for severe consequences as budget gap looms. It's a big number, we'll talk about that. And finally, who cares?

Who cares if most University of Wisconsin at Madison? Students come from outside of Wisconsin. We'll talk about that. Plus much, much, much more. Layoffs and cutbacks this week. No closures this week. Stay tuned on that. 35 Baldwin Wallace University faculty and staff take buyouts amid financial deficits. These buyouts come months after Baldwin Wallace University cut more than 20 positions.

A spokesman for the university did not detail, of course, did not detail which departments were impacted by the buyouts. Why would we want to share that? And this was from WKYZ NBC Channel 3 in Cleveland. As always, links will be links to the story will be in the show notes. Elizabethtown College to cut back on full time faculty. This is an update. This is from Ashley Stahlmecker, staff writer from Lancaster Online.

and students and faculty at Elizabethtown College received an email last Thursday from President Betty Reiter, R-I-D-E-R, warning that an unspecified number of faculty positions will be cut at an undefined time in the future in order to limit expenses. I don't even know what that means. And a Lancaster online reporter and photographer, I guess two folks, were told by a college official

to leave campus on Friday of last week while this reporter and photographer were trying to speak with students. So this is America, so I guess it's okay to throw people off of your campus because they want to talk to others about your campus. Sarcasm alert, I should have given on that. And prior to the online service, Lancaster Online, being told to leave, several students on campus actually declined to speak to them.

Gary (04:48.45)
They did so because they weren't aware of the coming cuts and others, and this is what's kind of scary, others who were approached at area copy shops declined to give their names, declined to give their names, citing a fear for their standing at the school.

Think about that. If they had some thoughts, for some reason the school has created a climate, a culture.

not particularly conducive to a culture for learning, throwing out reporters and intimidating students implied or otherwise. And then members of the college's student government did not reply to, did not respond to a request for comment. And while some students, the story goes on from Ms. Stalmecker, the story goes on to say,

While some students were reflecting on the coming changes, those employed by the school, those employed by Elizavetown College were silent. Rider University's email said the college's personnel council made up of faculty and administrators will determine exactly how many and which cuts will be made, but none of the members responded to Lancaster online for requests.

for comment. Stephanie Zegers, chair of the college's staff council, did not respond also either to a request for comment. reading this story and thinking about it, I'm looking for an application. Can somebody get me an application to Elizabethtown College? Again, sarcasm alert is in order here. Elizabethtown College really sounds like a fun place. And because it sounds like such a fun place, again, sarcasm alert.

Gary (06:41.908)
I have already added Elizabeth Towne College to my Google alerts. So any new story that comes out on Elizabeth Towne College, I'm going to look at it and see if it belongs in the podcast. And you know what that means, almost certainly, that Elizabeth Towne College may very well make it into my frequent this week in college viability frequent flyer list. They joined University of the Arts, Webster University, Birmingham Southern, that closed Wells College, that closed and...

page two, Bradley University enrollment dips below 5,000 for the first time in over 30 years. This is from Tim Shelley at WCBU in Peoria, I believe. The total enrollment this year is 4,800 students according to university spokesman. That's down from a little over 5,200, so down 400 students from 23, 24. It's the lowest overall enrollment since 1990. Now, this is not a new development.

Bradley University's trauma over the past year is well known. I've talked about it many times on this podcast. And they had a 13 million deficit that led to some deep cuts to the academic offerings they had. They eliminated 61 teaching positions and are in the process of phasing out 15 programs and then five other programs no longer being offered as majors. So here's the data and it's a combination of mostly good. Bradley University's

four-year and six-year graduation rates slash really, really good. They slash 58 and 76 percent respectively.

Interestingly though, Bradley has not reported in the last eight years that I track on the college viability app, Bradley University has not reported its unfunded institutional grants for those last eight reported years. Again, unfunded institutional grants for what you and I know as merit aid scholarships, most scholarships, kinds of things. From my mind, it's reasonable speculation that the college is forgoing considerable revenue

Gary (08:49.068)
with large discounts in the form of merit aid and most scholarships, like I just mentioned. And of course, very few of any colleges are willingly gonna share how much of the store they're giving away, yet as part of what they all submit, except Bradley University and a few others, to the iPads database. And I guess that's my job. This is one of the many reasons to share these kinds of with you.

And I'm here with more than 6,000 podcast downloads. People are listening to what I'm talking about. More than 6,000 podcast downloads year to date in 2024. Here's the point though that I want to emphasize. Bradley University is a high quality college. They graduate students at a rate far greater, far higher than their competitors. There was another college in the area referenced from Eureka College, and I've talked about them before.

And they slash graduation rates at 30, not pathetic, 39 and 51%. 39 % after four years, 51 % after six years. And this is a serious trend. This isn't the only time this has come up that a high quality college that graduates a high percentage of students has substantial and serious financial challenges. I encourage, I've said this before, I encourage low quality colleges, those with low graduation rates.

and with weak financial health to get out. You're not doing anybody any favors by offering a low quality college education with tuition that many students can't afford. And they don't even graduate, not even half graduate. Those colleges are not doing students any favors by taking their tuition dollars and then graduating something less than half of those students. But Bradley University is not one of those colleges. There are many, too many.

And it's concerning.

Gary (10:45.422)
And let's talk about high schools. I've seen these stories often. I think I might have referenced it a few months ago on the podcast. And this is a story from the Thomas Fordham Institute, and it was written by Amber Northern and Michael Pacioli. And it's about high school closures. And the article gets into the nitty gritty of which schools should close and more. And I'm not going to go there. But remember how I've talked before about the economic concept of marginal

Decision, marginal analysis, some folks talk about it. It's really an examination of the additional benefits of any activity, in this case college, compared to the additional costs incurred by that same activity. So as going to college, is the cost worth it? Marginal decision-making means, and I'm reading a definition here, marginal decision-making means considering a little more or a little less than what we already have.

We decide by using marginal analysis, which means comparing the cost and benefits of doing a little bit more or a little bit less, in this case college. And so in the context of high schools closing, if we look ahead to the next, what, two to five years, we've already written the demographic clip for college students to being a trite phrase. But if we add the fact that there are fewer students

graduating from high schools. Is it not possible that that will pile on top of this demographic clip?

I understand that many of the students from close high schools may not be college ready, but again, I've talked about the graduation rates so many times. It's just another factor to consider as we look at the consolidation in the form of mergers and closures of private and public colleges in the coming years. Tuition resets, always a favorite topic of mine.

Gary (12:51.342)
Warren Wilson College lowers tuition nearly 40%. I think the math is off, but I'll leave that alone. Warren Wilson College lowers tuition nearly 40 % to break down barriers and improve access. And the room that I'm speaking to you from is spinning as I read this.

And let me just give you a couple of the commodity quotes, ones I see in here all the time, used in this press release. Lauren Wilson College is underscoring its longstanding commitment to access and inclusion. Our college, this was really silly, our college has been a secret too well kept for too long. Well, that means nobody knows.

or not enough, but not enough students know that you even exist to want to consider you as a college. And why you just bring that up now escapes me. And they also say they have a compelling value proposition. I don't know beyond providing a diploma in four years in major that students want. There's anything more to that value proposition than this graduating.

And here is what Joseph Raquelmi, the interim vice president for enrollment says, the reduction in the published tuition price allows prospective students to focus more on fit than cost. Now keep in mind that Warren Wilson, just like others, is going from a high price, high discount rate to a lower price. And they're going to say no discount rate.

Mr. Raquami goes on to say, and maybe Dr. Raquami, removing that barrier gives us the opportunity to show more students the value of our experiential learning community. And he continues and concludes with, while Warren Wilson College is a vibrant independent college with an innovative curriculum, my, that purposely integrates the liberal arts with community engagement and work experiences to prepare students for not only professional success.

Gary (15:03.608)
but also for a life of meaning, I hope, not as trite and redundant as that statement is. That's me. This is not the quote from Warren Wilson. And again, I'll share briefly. Research shows that tuition resets may have a really short-term effect, but they're not an answer. They're not an answer at all. And Bethel University did the same thing, but there's this kind of interesting. Bethel University, the headline reads, this is from Jason. Scoot over.

He's a web content specialist, so this is an internal story. Bethel University repositions tuition to increase transparency and access, going back up to Warren Wilson's essentially the same exact headline. And they're lowering the tuition to a new rate of $25,990, and it lists price of something in the vicinity of $50,000, as I recall. And so what was interesting and caught my attention is I read the story from Bethel University.

It said it was just for the College of Arts and Sciences. Well, I'd never seen that before. Why would you just offer a tuition discount or a new tuition rate, excuse me, a new tuition price for just a College of Arts and Sciences? So I went on LinkedIn and said, hey, can anybody tell me why Bethel is just doing this for College of Arts and Sciences? And I got a few responses and it makes sense. And apparently this is where most of the students are. And they have other colleges, other schools at their college.

that that was not made available for, but they're focusing on the high volume students. Sorry, I will grant them that. And maybe they have different tuition pricing for the other colleges, the other schools. But I've never seen one reference just a College of Arts and Sciences, because that's a common department or college or school at many colleges. So anyway, they explain that well. And one was, think, maybe the provost from Bethel and some others not associated with the University of Kimah. I don't answer that question for me. Cal State.

campuses, states in California, colleges in California. These campuses brace for severe consequences as budget gap looms. And this is from Mikhail Zinchisen.

Gary (17:15.917)
It was published on September 25th. And here's the number that knocked me off my almost ready to throw chair here. The projected 2025-2026 budget deficit is between 400 and 800. That's 400, four followed by two zeros and eight followed by two zeros, million dollars.

And here is the quote from Trustee Jack McGrory at the hearing for these budgets for campuses in California. Mr. McGrory says, I think we've got a lot of broken calculators here in Sacramento, Sacramento, California. We're expected to increase enrollment, fulfill the needs of the labor market, and continue to grow the economy. And at the same time, we're facing these incredibly massive. Amen to that.

these incredibly massive cuts. And he goes on to ask what happens to our 500,000 students with these incredibly massive cuts as he's just using that phrase a lot. He concludes with our talking layoffs. Everybody's got to face up to that. Now they do rationalize in the story or describe why it could be somewhere between 400 million and 800 million. I'm not going to go into those details.

But again, this is an example of a public college, a big public college system, half a million students, that is up against financial realities that maybe they haven't faced at this level before. And while I can't imagine any California public colleges closing, I can readily imagine scenarios were on the weekly This Week in College Viability podcast. We'll see the story come up again with colleges required.

to cut programs or to merge programs or to cut faculty, staff, those kinds of things. Yes, it's mostly privates and it's mostly privates that have closed and will continue to close. But trust me, publics are facing very, very similar financial challenges. They just won't close for a lot of reasons, mostly associated with politics. And then NBC Channel 12 in Ryanlander, Wisconsin. I forgot to see where Ryanlander, Wisconsin was.

Gary (19:32.11)
This is written by Benjamin Yaut, the Center Square contributor on September 26. And the headline reads, less than half of the University of Wisconsin Madison's freshmen are from Wisconsin. Now, it's interesting to me to note that this comes out of a minor media outlet in Rhineland, Wisconsin. And UW Madison's from Mr. Yaut's story. UW Madison's newest class has 8,500 some odd students. And just 45 % of those are from Wisconsin.

Now the folks at Madison clearly are sensitive to the public perception that most students come, most students in public college don't come from Wisconsin. And here is Madison's covering comment, I guess, from the story. UW, and this is again from Mr. Young's story, UW Madison is once again exceeding its commitment to enroll a minimum of 3,600 new Wisconsin freshmen. And the number is actually 300.

3,800 some. This year's figure is especially significant given the stagnant number of Wisconsin high school graduates and the decreasing number of Wisconsin high school graduates pursuing post-secondary education. And credit for whoever wrote this, they are talented. They're essentially rationalizing why they're bringing in so many students from out of state. And UW Madison, for those not familiar with the geography, is a big deal. Not just in Wisconsin, but in Illinois and Iowa and-

and Minnesota among other states. It's popular in many ways and for many reasons. And I don't fault UW Madison for their out of state enrollment percentages. I do believe this is yet another example of a move toward big colleges and UW Madison, tens of thousands, I don't remember the exact numbers, that big college. And I think we'll see.

soon enough that some researcher digs into the fall 2024 data and where students are enrolling and they're gonna compare it to past years. And we're going to find that the move has been underway at least starting this year, if not earlier, for students moving away from small, either private or public, public regionals, and toward the big land grant colleges and other publics and privates. They're just big.

Gary (21:59.04)
And if I'm correct, and there's reason to believe I am, if I'm correct and the movement is already underway, that spells increasing problems for those smaller public and regional private colleges. Stay tuned.

Gary (22:18.606)
And then new data. So the final story today is from New America, Stephen Bird on September 24. New data analysis shows how financial aid leveraging is harming low income students at public universities. Now stick with me on this. Mr. Bird says, public universities used to be a bargain. They were heavily subsidized by states in the form of taxes in lot of forms. However, Mr.

bird ads over the past several decades, state disinvestment and institutional status seeking have worked hand in hand, writes, to encourage public universities to adopt the enrollment management tactics of their private college counterparts. With the help of expensive enrollment management consultants, many selective public universities, Mr. Yont writes, have hiked up their prices.

and provided tuition discounts and so-called merit aid merit scholarships to lure affluent students with good grades and standardized test scores to their campuses to increase their revenue and climb up the college rankings.

He continues, while public universities still remain less expensive than privates in most cases, that's my ad, they have become increasingly more expensive over time at all levels of the income distribution, Mr. Yant writes. But while the research has found that the price of attending public universities has risen, it's increased for students of all incomes.

Note this, wealthy students have benefited substantially from discounting, while low-income students are being left with large, and he writes, widening funding gaps.

Gary (24:15.736)
College is indeed expensive for higher income students and for lower income students. That's not changed. But the affordability problem is much greater, even at lower numbers. The affordability problem is much greater, and he writes more consequential, for lower and middle income students. If they can't afford it, they can't go, these researchers write. So throw in the FASTA debacle and the trend and a trend of publics to make college more expensive.

and you have yet more fuel added to the fire that colleges are not... The public perception, not my idea, the public perception that colleges are not worth the investment of time and money and raising the price of anything, bread, milk, eggs, cars, houses, computers, raising the price of anything is rarely a market expanding opportunity. And let's do a wrap. I'm still puzzled.

by the many, many enrollment stories that have popped up over the past six weeks from my Google alerts and from leads from podcast listeners. And I've talked to others who suggest that these many stories are mostly marketing department wordsmithing. They're taking a morsel of good data and making it seem like a feast of success. And maybe that is the case. And Lord knows I have made the case.

for some of the colleges on this podcast that they're just spinning data. And you've heard me talk about that many times. And I know intellectually that there are hundreds and probably thousands of colleges not releasing any enrollment growth data, any enrollment data, because their numbers are not good. But for those colleges that have released good enrollment news, I'll be watching.

I'll be watching those good news colleges closely in the coming months. And when I see cutback or layoffs or closure announcements, I'm going to head out to find out what kind of fall 2024 press releases have come out for those colleges. If these colleges have increased their enrollment and the revenue that comes with it, as you heard me talk before, the enrollment does not pay the bills. If they've added substantial

Gary (26:37.75)
revenue to go with the enrollment increase. Good for them, good for them. And I'm sure many have done that. But for the colleges that have spun enrollment stories, for those colleges spinning enrollment stories to essentially trick students, and trick is a strong word here, to essentially trick students into coming and into staying, your stories will be the ones featured on this week in college viability. Those stories will not be pleasant.

and they will be back with data from the college viability app and much, more.

Hey, thanks for making time to listen. I am always grateful. Until next Monday, it's Gary Stocker with College Viability. We'll talk then.