This Week In College Viability (TWICV) for March 11, 2024

Gary (00:04.174)
It's March 11th, 2024, and it's this week in college viability. Hi, my name is Gary Stocker. What do we have on tap this week? Again, more layoffs and cutbacks. We'll talk about those in a minute. Some student impact stories on the Notre Dame closure, some good, some bad. Stories from both Fitch and Bloomberg rating services on the higher education industry. The state of Mississippi joins the merger consolidation movement. And at the University of Virginia,

LinkedIn Connections sent me a note that it will take 1 ,000 undergrads to pay the base salaries of their DEI staff. A brief story on that. And a basketball team without a college continues to play basketball. That and much more on this week in college viability. But I think for the first time ever, breaking news, as I was getting ready to record this morning, Fontbonne University here in the St. Louis area just announced earlier this morning, they are closing in 2025.

They will not accept any new students in 2024. There appears to be additional information that they may have had issues with the Higher Learning Commission. They have not shared with the public. Local reporters are looking into that as we speak. On to layoffs and cutbacks at Alprezo University. To weigh cutting 28 programs, they'll let us know by the fall of 2024. That's from Loris Patoniak of Higher Education Devise.

Gary (01:32.526)
divide on March 4th. St. Norbert College announces further layoffs amid an ongoing budget issues. This is from Ben Krumholz and Fox 11 News. That was last Friday. They're going to be cutting 12 additional faculty jobs at St. Norbert College. Actually, 12 faculty jobs are being cut after 35 non -academic jobs were cut last fall. And then Michael Marsden, who is the interim VP of Academic Affairs. And it's clear he took one for the team.

He was asked by the reporter, who's responsible for this cutbacks? And Marsden responded, the blame I think is not to be attributed to any particular person. I think there was not as much attention to trends that were clearly there, projections that were clearly there. And I think now we're addressing them. This certainly falls into the category of day late and dollar short. And then an alum from St. Norbert says, how am I supposed to...

people who didn't make the right decisions the first time around are going to finally figure it out. That is my main question, said a 2010 St. Norbert alum. It continues and it will continue. Page two, I went on it off with an unneeded crushing disappointment from a teenager that was devastated by the closure announcement of Notre Dame College. And this is about a student who I'm not going to name, who had a football scholarship.

to go to Notre Dame College. And of course he lost that and was crushed that he wasn't gonna be able to play football, number one, at Notre Dame College and two, that he had to find another option. And the story came from Bryn Caswell on Channel 5, ABC News in Cleveland. And I posted this story, you can read the details in the show notes, I'll give you the link, of course. I posted this story to my LinkedIn account as soon as I saw it, it was last Wednesday. And I've had 1600 depressions in the last four, five, six days. And...

This is kind of like Bon Bon in many ways, but the leadership at Notre Dame College has to have known for months, many months, that the college was in danger of closing. I knew it. I shared the concerns with others. And if you're a college leader, this story is for you, if you're a college leader or a board member who is fully and reasonably aware that your college may not survive, be honorable.

Gary (04:01.806)
and make the announcement sooner rather than later. Do it for your faculty, for your staff, for your students and their families, for your communities. Don't wait till the last minute. And if you don't, if you insist on holding it close to the vest, I understand there's some logic for that because otherwise it becomes a self -fulfilling prophecy. But if you don't,

The 2020 -24 Private College Viability App for students and families will tell them that your enrollment has decreased, that your graduation rates, if they're awful, are awful, that your tuition and fees are down, that your tuition rates, what trend they have gone. I'll tell them if you won't. I'll tell them gladly. And I'll make a couple bucks doing that. So the next story is again from Notre Dame. And the story is from Ideastream Public Media and it's written by Connor Morris.

And the headline is Notre Dame College students mole next steps after a new closure. But what I'm going to focus on is in this story, it lists the colleges that Notre Dame College is sending its students to as possibilities, as recommendations for where they can continue on with their college education. And I'm going to read you the list. It's Baldwin Wallace University. I know they have issues. Cleveland State University, Hiram College, John Carroll University, Kent State University, Lake Erie College with lots of issues.

Ursuline College, Walsh University, and Mercyhurst University in Erie, Pennsylvania. Here's what I want to share. All seven, all seven that I just referenced had negative enrollment trends over the last eight reported years. Five of the seven had endowments less than 50, 50 million. Six of the seven had increased unfunded institutional grants. Of course, you and I know those as merit aid and most scholarships, although two of those are very small increases.

and five of the seven had decreased tuition and fee revenue over the last eight reported years. So here's the point. A college that couldn't stay open is in large part sending its students toward other colleges that are financially unhealthy without exception. And with viability issues, some have viability issues. It's important to note though that none of them are as bad off as Notre Dame College when you compare them.

Gary (06:19.278)
But the point is, you know, some of these may close. I don't think they'll all close. But it's not just closure that we want to talk about. It's a good college experience. If you had a good college experience, I think you would want that for everybody. But if colleges like these seven, many of whom have their last financial dollars circling the drain, can they really provide a good college experience for their students?

Not a question for me to answer, but it's certainly a question for you, the listeners, and many, many others to answer as well. Page three, and this is from Fitch. And the headline reads, distress sores at small colleges, small US colleges, as enrollment declines. And the subheading is, schools have broken covenants, which are usually part of bond agreements, and struck deals with bondholders that list no particular details. And then it concludes Fitch, the rating service, sees consolidation persisting in 2024 and beyond.

This story comes from Nick Corrello and Bloomberg on March 5th. Now I want to read part of what Nick Corrello wrote. Consolidation is expected to persist in 2024 and beyond. And this is from Emily Watahani, who's a senior director at Fitch.

developed in consultation with six higher education experts that are not listed, measured schools with fewer than 5 ,000 students across five metrics. I won't read those to you. And the data span was about 1 ,100 colleges over the last two decades. And the most recent data from the Federal Database includes enrollment and admission figures from the fall of 22. And there's that lag that comes with it. Now here's...

Bloomberg offers their data. Fitch is also referenced in this story. But here's a part where I differ from Bloomberg, and really from Fitch as well. And I actually share the individual college data with anyone who wants to look at it. I'm not gonna identify the colleges that I think aren't gonna make it. I have my own list. But the 2024 private college viability app, the...

Gary (08:34.894)
three different versions of that, reviews eight years worth of individual data for individual colleges, and it's data the colleges themselves submitted, it's almost 1 ,300 colleges. And as the late Paul Harvey would have said, the rest of the story, again from the Bloomberg and Fitch's stories, roughly 200 schools met at least three of the five metrics that used, and about 60 schools met at least four of them.

10 colleges met all five of the high -risk data points in the 2022 -2023 collection period.

Yeah, it's going to continue. It's going to continue. And also, you know, Fitch has another story that was on March 6th and it references something new and that is public.

Gary (09:35.342)
But in the case of Pennsylvania, this story writes, Pennsylvania is considering limiting tuition at certain public colleges to $1 ,000, I guess per semester it doesn't say, for lower income students. Now that's fine. States are welcome to do what they need.

But what impact does it have, not on a public college's viability? I don't know that many will close. Some may merge. But what impact does it have on that college's ability to offer low enrollment majors? And I'm going to pick on journalism because that's one of you all the time. What if a college only has five or 10 journalism majors and this thousand dollar tuition limit pushes public colleges in Pennsylvania, some of them, to say we can't afford to offer journalism? Now, again, just an example. Pick whatever topic that you want.

There's there's there's unforeseen consequences with public entities recommending tuition minimums, maximums really. And be careful what you do with those because it can come back and bite you. And on to Mississippi.

And Zach Player in the Columbus, Mississippi dispatch on March 6th wrote about a public official in Mississippi, and I'm not going to use the name here, who was looking at merging some number of the seven public colleges in that state. Now, this is a story I'm going to follow in the coming weeks because it's confusing from the stories that I'm reading, whether it's going to happen or not, whether this was some guy had a hair or not and decided to try and merge some colleges or whether it's got some actual steam. But the point is,

It's another state that may be looking at consolidating public colleges. And I think there were two or three that had some pretty significant declines in enrollment over the last number of years. I'll provide the links to the story in the show notes. And then a LinkedIn connection. And I mentioned this in the lead to this week in college viability. A LinkedIn connection sent me a story that some researchers had done.

Gary (11:32.462)
that at the University of Virginia, it would be take 1 ,000 undergrads, I presume at this price, it doesn't say, 1 ,000 undergrads to pay the base salaries of DEI staff. Now colleges, public or private, are welcome to hire whoever they want and have them do whatever they want. But that was an interesting number. That's a lot of undergrads. University of Virginia is kind of expensive. I don't know what this price is off the top, but 1 ,000 undergrads just to pay for that function.

somebody's going to push back. I don't do politics here. It's a no win, but that is a noteworthy data point from my perspective.

Gary (12:14.35)
Page four, Notre Dame College, I'm sorry, page four, Massachusetts. We're going to go to Massachusetts. Too much on Notre Dame College today. Massachusetts ramps up financial oversight for two faith based colleges. Now, if there is a trend on these closures that we're seeing, they tend to be religious or faith based colleges. And that's the case here. In my mind, that's a sub story of all that's going on.

is probably not doing anything to substantially alter the supply and demand issues that I talk about all the time. But this is a story from higher education dive and Natalie Schwartz on March 7th. And the two colleges referenced are Boston Baptist College and North Point Bible College. And you'll recall a couple of years ago, Massachusetts, when Mount Ida closed, they created some guidelines that if colleges were in danger of closing, the state of Massachusetts was going to know about it.

in some form or fashion, try and make sure that this wasn't a short notice closure. All right, good luck with that. There are all sorts of issues that we can talk about another day. But both these colleges, Boston Baptist College and North Point Bible College, the data on them from the 2024 college viability app, both have full -time enrollment of less than 200 students. Both the four -year graduation rates for Boston Baptist and North Point are

13 % and 24 % respectively. Disgustingly low. The tuition and fees and even the endowment weren't much more than couch money. And these may or may not close. They probably won't. They don't have enough money to keep the lights on. But the issue again is quality. What kind of quality are you getting? Not much if you're only graduating 13 and 24 % of your students after four years. Why are they even in college? I guess I have to keep asking that question.

And guys, I think maybe we didn't do Birmingham Southern College last week. Well, we can't do that. So Natalie Schwartz from Higher Education Dive. February 6th was a story. This came from the March 20th, the March 5th update. There was a bill in early February that Alabama lawmakers filed that would give Birmingham Southern another shot at the 30 million dollar loan. I teased about that in a previous episode of This Week.

Gary (14:30.958)
by saying they wanted to change the referees in the middle of the game or fire the referees in the middle of the game. And this had to do with, I think, the treasurer in the state of Alabama, Mr. Boozer, I remember his first name. So in March 5th, the story from Natalie Schwartz, I'll read the quote, Birmingham Southern has fallen on some hard financial times and this is a way to hopefully continue to keep them alive.

This is replacing Mr. Boozer with somebody else to make the decision on this $30 million. And it goes on to say, I'll be honest, if this does not pass, I don't see a reference to this quote, if this does not pass, they probably close their doors. Now put your extreme sarcasm alert note on, because I'm going to be extremely sarcastic here. If this does not pass, they'll probably...

be closing their door. Now that's a college I want to send my children to. And lastly, Antelope Valley. And this is a community college. It's in the NAIA tournament despite school shutdown. This is from Myron Medcalf, M -E -D -C -A -L -F. And this is from ESPN, big time sports writer on March 8th. And the college is closing. Antelope Valley is closing, they're locking doors, not letting folks in, all sorts of like that.

But the college basketball team apparently had some skills and were doing all right, both men's and women's as I recall. And they'd raised $40 ,000. The college itself had had some financial mismanagement. There's lots more details to that. So here's the quote, the players have been through a lot as our school has officially announced its closing. They have still not communicated to any of us or the students what their plans are for helping students find a new school or finish their degree.

and the burden is falling on the students, their families, our staff, and others in the community that care about the well -being of these young men and young women.

Gary (16:37.358)
And am I the only one documenting this continuing level of higher education fraud and its impact on these students? I did a story earlier today about Notre Dame College. And I don't know that I created the college viability app exclusively for this purpose, but it certainly serves this purpose. It is demonstrable that there are too many of these public.

and private colleges that are at the end of their financial existence in some form or fashion. The data trends clearly show us this.

Buy the application, buy the app, don't buy the app. But you know what, send a few bucks my way and purchase it just to ease your anxieties. The parent and student version is only 29 bucks to the end of March. The executive analysis version is a lot more expensive than that but provides 30 plus reports across almost 1300 colleges over eight years. It's a couple bucks per college. Do it, don't do it. Many will, but many won't, I realize that. But the data's there.

And to go back to the story from Notre Dame, if your child is looking at playing a sport at a college, especially a small private college, especially a small private college in the middle of nowhere.

Look at the finances. I call it the college viability app. I can call it a reverse FAFSA. You've given the college your financial information with the FAFSA. Use the college viability app as a reverse FAFSA so you know about the college's finances just like they know about yours. And let's wrap this up. There's always a set of stories that I don't, that I do not include in this week in college viability. And as you've heard in previous podcasts, I use Google alerts.

Gary (18:28.494)
to stay informed on many different higher education topics. And some of those, quite a few of those, include enrollment increase stories. I don't really view those as newsworthy or really within what I'm focusing on and for what I'm trying to do with this podcast in particular. But it does reinforce the point that I make regularly that there are many colleges that are surviving and some are thriving. There's no question.

I do make note of those that are thriving in my top to bottom reports that go out each Sunday by state or by region.

Remember, as I wrap this up, it's not that colleges continue to close and have layoffs and cutbacks. It is the unassailable fact that many are mere shadows of what they used to be. They cannot reasonably be expected to provide a positive college experience if their primary focus is on survival.

And for public colleges, it's not really an issue of closure, maybe in rare occasions. It's making sure that the career path a student has chosen, whatever it may be, will be supported at that college. Until next Monday, when we do this again, this is Gary Stocker for this Week in College Viability. We'll hear from you next week. Take care.