This Week In College Viability (TWICV) for December 4, 2023

Gary (00:02.462)
It's December 4th, 2023, and it's this week's episode of This Week in College Viability. Hi, my name is Gary Stocker, and you'll want to know right off the top that these stockings are already hung by the chimney with care in these stocker households. Goodness gracious, we are early and on top of things here. In this week's episode of This Week, the College of St. Rose, some extensive coverage of the closure and the reactions associated with that. Our regular cutbacks and layoffs list.

Bacone College graduates no one and is on the auction block for failing to pay a vendor. We'll briefly talk about that. Birmingham Southern College gets $7.5 million in public loans. We'll show you the math that says that will last about two months. Temple University, their enrollment leader, has some strange thoughts. We'll talk about those. Boards continue to do poor work in hiring college presidents. We have a brief story on that.

Gary (01:00.816)
at Webster University, their bonds go further into junk status. We'll briefly chat about that as well. The cutbacks and layoffs list is short today. I envision that being much longer in the weeks and months to come. Fontbon here in St. Louis, formerly degree decided and announced, started their dropping 21 degree programs and eliminating 19 faculty positions. That was from Black Bernhardt and Steph Kukolian in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and the University of Nebraska in Lincoln, that's the big one. That's where the football plays.

and the volleyball players are probably more famous now. University of Nebraska Lincoln proposes to cut staff to remedy a $12 million deficit. And that's from Natalie Schwartz at Higher Education Dive. I think they're also coming back 30 FTEs and coming back on teacher assistance as part of that program. And let's talk about the College of St. Rose.

So last Wednesday, the announcement, the headline read, College of St. Rose asks state and Albany officials for emergency funds and the subheading reads, school faces growing debt and questions about future plans from National Accreditation Group. That was from Kathleen Moore on November 29th. I think that was in Times Union in Albany. On Friday, on Friday.

The headline reads, reactions come out after the College of St. Rose announces impending closure. And the story I have on that one is from CBS, Channel 6 News, and Janet DeCamillo. And again, I have links to all this. And then more. There's more after that. The next headline reads, typically expected. The next headline reads St. Rose students demand transparency and apology.

over abrupt college closure announcement. Let's talk about that. And this is from WRGB Channel 6, the CBS. It was a staff article. So College of St. Rose, President Marshall White met with students this past Saturday to discuss the college's plans for closure.

Gary (03:03.734)
Well, apparently word leaked out from the closure board meeting and students heard the news from sources other than the college. And of course, that's not good. And so the first question that students are asking is, why weren't they given notice of the college's financial situation prior to that Thursday board meeting of last week? Fair question. And the folks in leadership positions at St. Rose had to know for months and months and months.

that the end is near. We have seen that at Iowa Wesleyan. We've seen that most recently at Cardinal Stritch University up in the Milwaukee area. Ladies and gentlemen, time after time, these announcements are sudden, but the data behind it is not. We see that in our college viability app, and I'll talk about that later. So the students wanted an apology. All right, fair enough.

The president said, because the students were focused on what the teach out would look like, how are they going to be able to finish their degrees, get their majors at another college? And the president said, you can't, I quote, you can't have a teach out agreement until you make a decision that you're going to close. I don't think that's true. I recall just this past summer that was either Paul Smith's college or King's college, both in New York.

were asked to provide teach-out plans prior to any closure announcement, although they'll probably both close eventually. So I don't know that the president of St. Rose had that cracked. I had to check to make sure. But the bottom line is these closures, these closure discussions are happening in various stages at colleges across the country. Almost certainly. And in almost every case.

The closure announcements have been surprises on the day of announcement, but like I said earlier, I've got my own list. I can tell you now which private colleges are at greatest risk of closing. I'm not going to be publishing that. I don't really care to have the litigation associated with sharing my analysis of that.

Gary (05:09.91)
but I know they're out there. The list I can tell you is over 200 colleges. They won't all close for sure. Some will find ways to survive, some will merge, but it's a big number. And there will be more and more and more of these happening in the coming weeks, months and years. And if you're a faculty or staff, I can also tell you whether you might wanna consider other colleges or other career options.

I've got a faculty and staff version of the College Viability app. I'll make that link available in the show notes. And if you're a student or a parent, I can tell you which of these colleges I would be hesitant to send my children to. It's all in the data. It's all in the College Viability app. It's highlighted by eight years worth of enrollment trends. Eight years of enrollment trends, tuition and fee revenue, admission yield, the popularity indicator I've talked about before, and endowment funds.

If your enrollment has gone down for eight years, if your attrition and fee revenue is down over eight years, if your four-year graduation rate has been pathetic or strong for eight years, it's not gonna change in a year or two or even three. It takes time. And I'll put a link to all versions of the app in the show notes. I'm also going to include in the show notes a link.

I will send you a free single report version of the 2023 private college version of the College of Viability Act. It's going to track enrollment patterns for more than 1300 private colleges. There'll be a link in the show notes that you can do that. Be free of charge, no obligation. Let's make a deadline December 10th to sign up for that and I'll get it out probably this time next week. And then today I saw on the news wires or online an analyst.

The headline reads, St. Rose's impact on society creates scenario for lawmakers to step in. And this was reported by Tom Eschen of ABC TV and WHAM, I believe is that correct name. Again, that link will be in the show notes.

Gary (07:09.918)
And I'll start off with from the reporting from Mr. Eschen to mitigate the impact of St. Rose closing. St. Rose, President Marshall White tried proposing mergers with nearby institutions, but a gentleman by the name of Dan McCoy, who's the Albany County executive, said the nearly $50 million in debt on the college's property was enough for other institutions to hesitate on making a deal. Folks, I told you so.

I've told you so many times over the past many months, colleges are waiting too long. These colleges at the last minute when they know the last dollar circling the financial drain, they're dialing for dollars.

They're calling any college president they can get on the line and say, save me, save me, save me. And just like County Executive, Albany County Executive Dan McCoy said, they bring such little to the table so late in the life of a college that in almost every case, in every case I can recall, there has been no opportunity. So if you're a private college leader, president, CFO, board member, start some merger discussions much sooner.

rather than much later. And then the person that they referenced here, Katherine Meyer, as reported, she's at the Brown Center of Education Policy. I don't see her title. She said, there's an argument to be had for lawmakers to have more conversations about what they can do to help private colleges stay viable. Well, we're watching this play out in real time with Birmingham Southern. We'll talk about them in a minute.

It can only be a case of good public dollars chasing bad private dollars. I just, I offer let the market shake out. Yes, it's traumatic. Yes, it's no fun. Yes, it is difficult in so many ways, but higher education is not the only industry that has been through market turmoil. There are simply, simply too many colleges, too many college seats, and not enough students willing to pay for those seats.

Gary (09:19.414)
There's no reasonable way for any public or probably private entity to alter that basic economic fact. And then Catherine Meyer from the Brown Center of Education Policy says again, I definitely expect to see more colleges closing or the more forward thinking ones to look for merger opportunities sooner. Welcome to the team, Ms. Meyer. As I just shared, there will be more closures. I think many more closures.

until remaining private colleges mostly, look to consolidate academics and operations to help more closely match the number of college sheets available to the number of students willing to pay, pay something for those college seats. And let's go to Oklahoma. And the headline reads, hoping some sort of miracle happens. Bacone College in Muskogee, Oklahoma, at risk of closing. And this is reported by Chloe Abbott from Channel 6 and Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Ladies and gentlemen, Bacone College is going on the local auction block, local auction block, say that fast, to pay off debts to a vendor. Now we went to the app and the iPads data and enrollment at Bacone College is down from 900 students, give or take in 2014 to 250, I think it was 253 in 2021. Real steep drop. And graduation rates are in single digits, less than 10%.

of students at Bacone College in Muskogee, Illinois, excuse me, in Muskogee, Oklahoma. Less than 10% graduate in four years. So in the category of a Christmas wishlist, the college is wishing for someone to step in, buy the college and save it. And now I know Bacone is primarily a college for the local native Indian student population. And there are challenges and traumas associated with that. I understand that's a factor. That's a component.

I guess all I would offer is that this auction takes place on December 14th if you want to own your own college.

Gary (11:28.59)
Be careful, this is a college that doesn't graduate students and has no substantive assets besides the land that sits on and the associated buildings. And to Birmingham because we're always entertained with Birmingham Southern College and its eight-year plus downward trend.

And so the headline reads, the city of Birmingham agrees to loan Birmingham Southern College $5 million. And there was another, because of that loan, another 2.5 million coming from the United Methodist Church, United Methodist Church's North Alabama Conference Board of Pension and Health Benefits. Say that really fast. I did the math. Well, first of all, the last submitted audited financials for Birmingham Southern.

in Birmingham, Alabama was in 2020. They should at least have had the 2022 ones out by now. There are two now going on three years behind. So I did the math. And if we added the loans from the city of Birmingham and from the United Methodist Church Organization, $7.5 million, I went to look at their auto and financial statements from 2020 because that's all that was out there.

and I took, they spend about 44 million expenses in 2020. Divide that by 12 months, that's not quite 4 million a month. So the 7.5 million, ladies and gentlemen, will last the good folks at Birmingham Southern College for about two months. I know they have other revenue sources, but what happens, this is December now, let's say end of January, end of February, are we going to go through this again?

And I've talked about Birmingham Southern College President Daniel Coleman before, and his quote in this story is in referencing the support of the city of Birmingham. That it not only documents our current value to the city, all right, maybe, but also the value BSC

Gary (13:23.35)
We'll continue to bring, and listen to this next part, we'll continue to bring as we build out our master's programs in data science, computer science, cybersecurity, and information systems over the next four to five years. Four to five years. They just got two months worth of loans. No word on how and if they have to pay those back.

Mr. Coleman doesn't reference startup costs, marketing costs, labor costs. And he doesn't reference the fact he may not even know the fact or recognize the fact that other colleges have master's programs in data science and computer science and cybersecurity and information systems. And they probably present a much stronger financial profile. What college student has already got a bachelor's degree and when looking at a master's degree, especially in these kinds of disciplines, won't be smart enough.

to compare colleges and that college's financial health and viability when choosing a graduate degree program. And if there are more and more of those masters kind of programs and data stuff, computer stuff, the pressure on tuition pricing will be there. So if he's planning on X amount of tuition revenue, you got to discount that because he's going to have to get students to enroll. Folks, it's not going to happen.

And at some point, public leaders, maybe, will realize that throwing good taxpayer dollars at failing colleges is a disservice, probably to the community and almost certainly to the market. Let the market adapt. I'll say it again. There are too many colleges and not enough students to fill the seats in those colleges, period. To Temple University, we grow it to go.

To Temple University we go, and Temple grapples with low enrollment numbers, comma, budget cuts. And university officials, the subheading reads, are working to increase enrollment and offset the consequences of the student body shrinking by almost 10,000 students over four years. And this is from the student newspaper, the Temple News, and written by what I presume is student Sidney Rachnik on November 28th. And this is where we have some interesting comments.

Gary (15:42.674)
I'm going to talk about Mr. Jose Aviles. It might be Aviles. I'm going to go Jose Aviles, who's Tyler's Vice Provost for Enrollment Management. And his first quote is profound, but the most immediate pressing focus, without question he says, has been recruitment of new students. Thank you very much. I'm going to write that down and put that in a big font. Mr. Aviles, there are not enough students created.

to meet the enrollment requirements of Temple and every other financially struggling college in this country. Avilas also said, access starts with really being present in communities that we're trying to recruit in as frequently as we possibly can to build those meaningful relationships and to share the information that families sorely need, especially first generation families and low income students. Sir, Mr. Avilas?

Maybe it's Dr. Willis, I don't know. Sir, have you not already been doing that? Man, I hope so. And if you have, why wasn't it successful? And if you haven't already been doing that, shame on you. And then one more quote from Mr. Willis.

And again, I quote, and I've told audiences over the last couple of open houses, which suggests a really short timeframe. I've told audiences over the last couple of open houses that really, if you are admitted to Temple, it's not that you could go, it's that you have to go. If you can go, you must go to Temple. Now, I'm going to take two weeks off and try and analyze that.

Gary (17:25.798)
Maybe he was misquoted, maybe they typed it wrong. I have no idea what he's trying to say there. You must go to Temple. I thought, whoa, I don't make that a jeesh category yet. There's certainly some delusion there, if it's an accurate quote. I even wonder if we might be seeing an advertisement sometime soon for new enrollment leaders at Temple.

And on to St. Cloud and St. Cloud president to exit a mid-tension. Small story, Robin Wacker is president there. She's had trauma. She's had trouble. Enrollment challenges. She's cut jobs. She's clashed with faculty. It happens. It happens all over the time. It happens all over the place and regularly. But that's not the story. This is a single story. But it's indicative of the poor job that boards of trustees, boards of governors, have been doing, I think, in hiring new college presidents.

That traditional route that we've talked about before from faculty to dean to provost or something similar to president is not any longer a valid route. Now I don't know if Robin Wacker followed that route or not. I do know that I am seeing and hearing more and more content suggesting that the profile of a college president, particularly a private college president, needs to change. Maybe someday I'll make that a topic on this week in College Viability.

And then let's go to higher education dive or higher ed dive and Laura Spatolniak, we've quoted her before. She does some good stuff. Her headlines on November 30 reads, national college completion rate stagnates at 62%. I've been doing my own work on some completion data on both programs and majors. And there are two different categories in the IPEDS database. Because I'm trying to develop a new college viability product. Maybe it'll come out. Maybe it won't.

But this story, though, is on the overall completion rates. And it continues, I think, to feed the traditional college narrative no longer exists for an increasing number of American traditional college students. And remember that effectively every decision you and I make is based on details on the margin, the color, the cost, the size, the location, the taste, the smell, the site, all those kind of things, on the margins.

Gary (19:40.414)
And it's the small things that push us toward or away from a decision. And that's what's happening with colleges. More and more college students are deciding or college age students are deciding on the margins, small details, small things, and for their own reasons that a college degree is not for them, whether they start and don't finish or don't start at all, separate them.

And it's not that college is not good. College is very good. Our own college viability manifesto states that very clearly. And everybody who can should go to college. Many millions do and will continue to get a completed college education. And that's a good thing. But that same marginal decision concept, economic model, economic concept, applies to colleges on the financial brink.

Something like a few handful of students who choose, who don't choose a college or leave a college or go to a college somewhere else can lead to a decision to close. I've said it before, I'll say it again, something's happening. This documents it, something's happening and it's not good. Webster University's bond rating falls to junk status. Another story to Steph Kakosian who's been all over this since the summer.

St. Louis Post Dispatcher November 30th story cites that Webster still has problems. And so I don't always like to do this, but I did. I went to the story that she wrote in the Post Dispatcher. And here's a comment that I put in there. I'm just reading it word for word.

Any chance the good, but less than forthcoming folks at Webster University could actually share their enrollment data with an interested public. They're just doing generalities. They probably, I go on, they probably haven't earned the right to spend the fall of 2023 obfuscating with generalities, and that's what they're doing.

Gary (21:38.014)
So I asked them, and it's a generic reference, to please share both the domestic and international fall 2023 full-time equivalent enrollment numbers. Then we can decide for ourselves whether they're doing better or not. They say they are, but they're not providing us any data to support that. And lacking such data, it's reasonable to speculate. The numbers aren't what they say. And again, yet another example.

in leadership by public relations. Just sad. I'm not going to go with a gish on that, but I'll go with a sad. Rick Seltzer at The Chronicle, again, follows up on this completion rate plateau. Just a couple items from his story. 62% who started college in 2017 have earned a degree, just 62 out of 100. And students aren't just taking longer to graduate, six years or more. They're leaving. And...

Seltzer's article reports of the 2.4 million who began college in 2017, nearly one third, 700,000 give or take 800,000, nearly one third left without a credential.

And completion rates, he adds, can be chicken and egg. I was intrigued by this. Students aren't sure, Seltzer writes, a degree is worth the investment, or those students who aren't sure a degree is worth the investment are more likely to leave. Contributing to that stuck 62% completion rate. At the same time, Seltzer wraps up, higher ed's apparent inability to graduate more of its students with the really low graduation rates we've talked about.

helps fuel students and the public's doubt about higher education value.

Gary (23:26.962)
And that's it. The stockings are still hung by the chimney, I presume, with care in the stocker household. So another podcast episode of this week in college viability is in the proverbial can. And I'll conclude with this. I'm hearing from an increasing number of those involved in some form of higher education that what we are seeing is unprecedented. Many of those also share that the trauma of closings and cutbacks will continue in the foreseeable future. And my really small part.

and providing support and guidance is through vehicles like this podcast, but mostly through the different versions of my College Viability app. Take me up on the year-end offers. I'll have links in the show notes. More this week in College Viability. Next week, this is Gary Stocker. Have a good one.