This Week In College Viability (TWICV) for Aug 24, 2026

Gary Stocker (00:00:01)
It is the end of August, August 24th, 2026. Hi everybody, Gary Stalker, back in front of the Blue Yeti microphone with yet another podcast episode of this week in college viability news and commentary. ⁓ And as I lead off every podcast, this is the one. This is the one that talks about the financial health and viability of public and private colleges with data and with details and perspectives, I believe, offered nowhere else. ⁓ So ⁓ this

This is the time of the year when the delusional college hype machines are in full swing. Whether enrollment is up or down, or financial health is good or bad, the videos and the press releases are streaming out the door. And I ⁓ I guess there's two ways to look at this. First, many of the students in these videos and these press releases will have exceptional college experiences. There's no way around it. And that's a good thing. It's a good thing to promote.

The value that colleges will provide a large number of students. ⁓ On the other hand, as Tevyo said, some of these college leaders are, ⁓ as I record this and as you listen to this, some of these college leaders are engaged in serious discussions about how their college will survive. Today they are choosing to spin, ⁓ to spin and puff up.

With chatter about new academic year festivities and hope. ⁓ Nothing wrong with that in general. As long as they're not hiding imminent closures and I worry about that. And and I guess tying into that, I I have a new disease. It's a techno disease. ⁓ I have started listening to a variety of higher education podcasts when I'm at the gym or on the car in the car or elsewhere. ⁓ Of course, my cop my podcasts are the best, whether it's this one.

Whether it is the ⁓ kitchen table, college jets, the youth sports show, or even the show I do with Matt Hendrix on Tuesdays, the College Financial Health Show are all better than these because they're fact-based. This past weekend I listened to quite a few college admissions podcasts. It's that time of year. I was non-plussed. Each was each of these podcasts, without exception, was not much more ⁓ than trite. ⁓

Gary Stocker (00:02:25)
Regurgitation, a kind of a neighborhood over-the-fense chit-chat that provide provided at best superficial guidance. ⁓ None of them, none of them talked about the financial health of colleges. Why is this important? Gary, are you being mean? Well, possibly. ⁓ This is why it's important. These folks, these podcasters and the and the guests they interview, can set the stage for what students and families expect.

During the college evaluation and selection process. Folks listen to that stuff, they think what they're saying is gospel ⁓ because they don't have the perspective and depth of experience and perspective that I do. ⁓ These same podcasters and their guests can also impact expectations for the actual college learning experience. It bothers me. I'm going to listen to more of them so I can become more informed on what they're doing, but I'm not sure they're providing much of a service in most.

Cases. And of course, back to products. ⁓ The 2026 college majors completion. Now, folks, I've got 200,000 records. Associate degree, bachelor's degrees, master's degree for every public and private college out there. I can tell when you've got five journalism majors or 50 journalism majors. I can tell when you have 10 biology majors or chemistry majors and a hundred of those. And I'm gonna and I've already started sharing and will continue to share those. And the moral of the story is.

Be careful about choosing a college whose majors completion and the majors you or your child is considering is let's call it below 10 on average, because those are the majors being cut. And then finally, this time next week, the release of the My College decision lens. We're changing the power structure. We're hoping to change the power structure and giving power and more data to students and their families, and I have more on that.

Later on in the podcast. Now, ⁓ those of you who listen to the podcast on a regular basis know this is when you always look forward to layoffs and cutbacks. And I don't have any. I think I've set the trend for this because I've noticed quite a few other publications and even podcasts doing the same thing. I don't have any new layoffs or cutbacks this week. What I do have is a number of college enrollment announcements. It's that time of year. So I'm going to spend some time on those. Stay with me.

Gary Stocker (00:04:50)
I'll get to those in a minute. And in conjunction with that, I do have some college drivel today, D-R-I-V-E-L, silliness. And I'm taking out the names of the college, but this is typical ⁓ of spin season, ⁓ of college enrollment, college startup season. Colleges always regularly say something like this: these enrollments at this college. These enrollment trends signal growing confidence in our college.

And in the distinctive educational experience we provide, and this was a college president who said this drivel, and you heard me say before.

Colleges are a commodity. At the end of the day, at the end of the day, you get a piece of paper that says I completed 120 college credits or 60 college credits or whatever. It's a commodity. There is no distinctive educational experience when you look at what colleges are delivering. ⁓ Yes, the trees are different, yes, the buildings are different, yes, the faculty's different, but it's not distinctive. They're teaching English and science and math and computers and liberal arts.

And singing and dancing and the whole spectrum of learning experiences. But they're not distinctive. They're not distinctive. They're commodities. Page two. All right, spin month. Now I I get it. And probably spin month will carry over into September. Creating the perception, and in some cases, reality of success is important. Granted. And as I have shared so many times, colleges will spin information, always have.

Always well. This is desperation time for hundreds of colleges. Most of those colleges will go to great lengths to try and create public perception, ⁓ financial strength, and success.

Gary Stocker (00:06:45)
They'll all be getting their Title IV checks from the federal government within the next few weeks. And for some, they will look at that Title IV check. They'll look at the numbers on that check and they'll realize the end is near, or even that the end has arrived, and they're not going to have the resources to keep the lights on and to meet payroll. The check simply won't be big enough to get them in to get these colleges to the end of 2026. Now, what's the number, you may ask, throwing something at your

Speaker or microphone? I don't know.

The pattern will continue. There's a tipping point out there when the public realizes ⁓ that there are too many colleges and they have to be really, really careful about the ones that they select. There will continue to be closures. ⁓ Use somebody else's numbers. I'm not going to get into that game. ⁓ And and it's not just that some will close. Hundreds of others of these colleges that'll get those Title IV checks and get the checks from their students paying for tuition. Hundreds of others will scrap together, scrape together enough funds.

Keep the lights on and meet payroll. Barely. They just won't be able to fund the type of quality college education that students deserve. And that is really where the My College viability, excuse me, the My College decision lens will be really useful. That is why next Monday's release is so important for students and for families. This this decision lens is was written and developed for students and families.

And certainly guidance counselors can use this as well.

Gary Stocker (00:08:24)
Be able to compare colleges. ⁓ And you'll see more details in the marketing that I do, in the social media that I do, ⁓ in the media that I do. And and what we have created won't tell you, it will not tell you if a college will close. Not gonna do it. I don't know. I can show you the data. I can compare the four colleges you've chosen and tell you which one meets your criteria better, which one does not meet your criteria. I can tell you what their graduation rates are, whether they're spending more money than they're taking in.

Whether their endowment is decent enough to survive or even growing or shrinking at the typical market rate. But nobody's good enough to say when a college will close, and I'm not gonna do it. But we will help students and families with this new tool look at clear ⁓ and useful data to make a more informed college decision. You heard my analogy before, we get our homes, we buy a house.

We get our we get it inspected. We look at the foundation before we sign on the data line. It is past time to do that same thing before committing to a college. Now I'm gonna review not all of the enrollment announcements, there's just too many. I'm gonna review some of those announcements along with my comments. And the first is from the president of Vila University in Missouri. ⁓ And here is the LinkedIn post, is what I'm gonna read to you.

From the president of Avila University. It's a great day to be an Avila Eagle. With each passing day, the campus is buzzing with activity as we prepare for the newest eagles to join the nest, and our returning eagles

⁓ to continue their studies. Welcome home to all of our fall sports student athletes who have already begun practices and competitions. ⁓ And apparently there's a picture of the football team. She says, ⁓ I see preparation for a new season, new successes on and off the field, and an impending victory at the home, I guess, football opener just 10 days away. All right, fine. Do it. Welcome them back. That's part of the tradition. Get her done. Since ⁓ we're gonna get we're gonna

Gary Stocker (00:10:31)
We're gonna go to the college financial compass that Matt Hendrix developed. Since twenty twenty one, and remember the data source is the college's actual audited financial statements, and in some cases their tax forms are IRS nine nineties, not making this stuff up. ⁓ At Avila University, ⁓ the total net total net assets are down ten million in the last five reported years. The unrestricted net assets, cash essentially, are down about three million.

The UNAP was a s which is essenti essentially a measure of the value, liquid value that a college has is a negative number, very difficult to recover from that. Interestingly, though, ⁓ the full-time equivalent enrollment and student revenues have increased. All right, so doing something well, but here's where it all goes off the tracks. Since 2021 through 2025, the last year of reported data, revenues at Avila are up 50%, 5-0%. ⁓

Expenses ⁓ are up 67%. ⁓ Do the math, that ain't good. Adjusted operating losses are over $25 million in the last five reported years. And this ⁓ a Vila University may win their opening football game this weekend. ⁓ But this university shows ⁓ no ability, no capacity to manage its expenses in relationship to its revenues.

And and while they have done well in driving new enrollment, it doesn't say anything about their tuition discount level. ⁓ I worry that that can't continue. And if it doesn't, their their issues will mount up quickly. Westminster. Westminster College, the Pennsylvania version. There are three of them across the country. ⁓ Penns Westminster College to welcome largest incoming class in years with strong academic profile. Fought to the College of Financial Compass would go again.

And this college appears to be in decent financial shape. They're drawing down their endowment at a rate that's a little bit higher than I like to see, but but so be it. The enrollment in 2021 was 1,268 students. In 2025, it was 1,226 students. So down about 40 students, down 3%. Now, I don't expect Westminster College or any other college to lead with that kind of stat or even to share

Gary Stocker (00:12:53)
They're just not going to. And I don't know if there's anything wrong with that. You and I try and paint rosy pictures for everything as well. And that's why I'm here. I'm here to be the quality control for this data. ⁓ I am here to be the anti spin, the reverse spin person for these colleges so that the consumers, the students, families, faculty members, communities can make a more informed decision about where these colleges are. The applications are up a little bit at Westminster, Pennsylvania.

The admissions yield, the number of students who say they're gonna go once they're accepted, is is down four points. ⁓ and the percent admitted is up twenty one points. That's not what concerns me. It's now in twenty twenty-four, the last data that I have on that. It was at ninety-three percent. So of every one hundred students who applied to Westminster College, ninety-three were accepted. If you've heard the podcast before, or seen some of my marketing and social media.

When you get above 85, 90 percent admissions, percent admissions, you have a heartbeat admissions policy. Have heartbeat, will admit. Now I want to do something different. All right. So you've you heard me talk you've heard me talk about the college viability inspection report. So I've got a handful or so of other colleges. And I again, the point of this exercise, and I think I'll do it differently in the coming weeks, but the point today is to acknowledge that colleges will spend things. They're gonna do it, nothing I can do about it, but that

They're spinning it to their own advantage, and sometimes that advantage is not even worthy of consideration. So the first one on the list today is York College of Pennsylvania. ⁓ And it says the headline reads: York College of Pennsylvania welcomes largest incoming class in six years. All right, they're picking six years for a reason. Enrollment momentum continues, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. It was an internal document. So the 2021

Full-time equivalent enrollment, that's a nice standardized measure of enrollment, was 3,900 in change. In 2025, it was 3,400 in change. So down in the vicinity of 500, down 13%. And like I said a second ago, it looks like they're picking the year to compare to. ⁓ Nothing wrong with that, but it is spin. They're trying to find the best positive light to put on their enrollment trends. ⁓ And ⁓ since twenty twenty one, those enrollment trends are not that strong.

Gary Stocker (00:15:23)
And again, I'm I'm the independent ⁓ anti-spin guy here at College Viability. Student revenues down not quite two million, ⁓ and the rest of the financials at York College are not remarkable or unremarkable. They're not bad, they're not great. The total net assets, the unrestricted net assets, UNAP have all decreased, but the raw values are okay, especially when comparison when compared to other colleges. Page three.

We continue. UA Little Rock, University of Arkansas, Little Rock, in the college viability inspection report, red flags and five of the nine measures. ⁓ Their enrollment is down twenty-eight percent in the last eight reported years in the iPeds database. Wabash Wabash College, Indiana. Nine of nine green on the inspection report, but I notice their expenses ⁓ are are ⁓ not where they need to be, even though they're all measures are green. Simpson University, California version, not reporting their Pell equity gap.

Which means that we don't know if their Pell students are performing better or worse than or the same as non-Pell students. And in the inspection report, five of eight red flags. Beroit College, six of nine green. I'm including the links to every one of these in the show notes. So you can actually go to the inspection report. You can drill down on it, see all the data in great detail, and even more than I'm even presenting here. Spring Hill College, Alabama. I've had them on the show before. Seven of nine red flags on the inspection report.

And Matt Hendrix College Financial Compass of the 15 key measures that Matt measures that Matt records and reports. 13 of the 15 are flagged at Spring Hill. Not good. Dalton State, Georgia. Again, they had a positive enrollment announcement. Write this one down. The four year graduation rate at Dalton State. The four year graduation rate less than 10%. ⁓ In most years, it's a single digit number. Nobody talks about that except me.

And finally, Ryder New Jersey, Ryder University in New Jersey in the College Viability Inspection Report, five of nine red flags. And again, the link will be in the show notes. You can drill down on each of those to see more of the data that's going on. St. Augustine's frequent flyer on the show. ⁓ won't offer any education. This followed Jane. ⁓ Sartwell had the story at MSN from the Raleigh News and Observer. ⁓ this spring, ⁓ Ms. Sartwell writes, ⁓

Gary Stocker (00:17:46)
The ⁓ HBCU and Raleigh, St. Augustines, gave up on a lengthy court battle for accreditation and filed for bankruptcy. I reported that here on the show. Despite that, ⁓ despite filing for bankruptcy, the school developed and planned to launch eight online degree programs this September. The courses which focused on topics like programming, artificial intelligence, and public health were going to cost students between $1,100 and $4,500. But ⁓

The report goes on. Earlier this month, bankruptcy judge David Warren raised serious concerns about this effort, saying he didn't think St. Augustine's was in a position to make promises to potential students. And although preserving the school's century and a half old education, educational mission is important, he said. It may not be the ⁓ in an understatement, my words on his, it may not be the best, it may not be the smartest use of resources ⁓ at this particular point. And now they'll at least have some resources to help.

pay down expenses they have ⁓ for not developing courses like this. And then that was the final ⁓ item on enrollment. ⁓ And ⁓ I want to

Take the angle a little bit differently. I've talked about endowments before, and I've called them in piggy banks, and that's it's crude, but that's what they are. They are piggy banks with restricted funds that are dedicated to certain projects, typically scholarships or buildings, ⁓ and unrestricted, which is effectively cash. Again, making gross generalizations here. So listen to this report from a LinkedIn post ⁓ from an Anthony Anthony Schnellwalzer. ⁓

The share of private colleges drawing more than 7%, the standards really 4%. ⁓ The share of private colleges drawing more than 7% from their endowments went from 9.9%, 10%, to ⁓ 16.4% between 2020 and 2024. Now, this is while the SP index rose rose 76%. So if your endowment has not grown by 76%, give or take, since 2020.

Gary Stocker (00:19:58)
You're far behind the times. ⁓ So this spending is what Mr. Schulwalter is trying to point out. This spending grew faster than an historic bull growing market.

Gary Stocker (00:20:12)
Too many colleges are expending way too much, drawing that endowment down just to keep the lights on, drawing that endowment down above that four to five percent rate. He uses seven percent as his as his threshold. It's not sustainable. And you're falling behind because it should have grown somewhere in the vicinity from 2020 through 2024, somewhere in the vicinity of 70%. Page four. The $140 billion public college myth.

Andrew Gillen had the story on at MSN.com on August nineteenth. And I've talked about this before. Not just colleges, but those trying to find ways to support colleges and support higher education are going to great lengths to try and demonstrate statistically, mathematically, that colleges are a worthwhile investment. And as you've heard me say before, they are for millions of students.

They pay their tuition, they spend their two or four or six years, whatever, and they get what they want and they go and and and ⁓ they improve their lives. Socially, economically.

But what's happening is higher education is trying to make a gross generalization. That the industry provides $140 billion, in this example, in value. ⁓ And Mr. ⁓ Mr. Gillen says, well, they're not including everything. They're not including two huge categories of costs. One is the cost paid by taxpayers subsidizing public college students. He notes the federal government provides about $4,000 per student in grants. States provide about $12,000.

And he also notes that college dropouts are ignored in this study.

Gary Stocker (00:22:00)
Study from the Institute of Higher Education Policy, IHEP, splits the population into two categories, college graduates who earn more but pay some costs, and non-college graduates who took some college credits but not but didn't graduate.

But the third category is dropouts who didn't get the full benefit from attending college. Nobody is counting that cost. So the hundred and forty billion, I'm sure, is mathematically correct.

Gary Stocker (00:22:29)
I doubt whether it's logically correct for the reasons that Mr. Gillen decided. And again, back to industry spin. Not college spin, but industry spin. This is an industry that will go to ⁓ any length to try and justify the costs associated with the college degree.

Yeah, again, I'm gonna say it is it it's true for millions, it's not true for millions as well. And and and they aren't wrong in those millions of cases. I'll say it again, millions of those students who graduate gain great social and economic value. These kinds of stories are very wrong when they don't recognize those that don't graduate, when they don't recognize the negative personal and social impact of non-graduates, whether they took some college courses or not.

Trying to justify the the higher education experience universally is just can't do it. The logic doesn't work.

And then finally, ⁓ Dr. Melik Peter Cory, who's the president at University Environmental University, Unity Environmental University, wrote something on his Substack account. When the blank check expires.

And he posted this on August 23rd, so just couple of days ago. And what talk he talks about what ended on July 1st of this year, which is the implementation ⁓ of new federal guidelines on loan amounts. And he writes: for roughly three decades, American higher education ⁓ operated inside a quiet arrangement. An institutional college set a price. A federal loan covered the price. Grad plus and parent plus would cover what cost of attendance an institution chose to declare.

Gary Stocker (00:24:17)
And the institution was responsible for declaring it. No control. They decided what they wanted the price to be, and they declared it. Tuition, Dr. Cory writes, could rise faster than wages indefinitely because nothing in the mechanism ever said no, no, don't do that. And he notes this arrangement, that arrangement is over. It ended on July first of this year. The blank check expired. He suggests the blank check was going to expire eventually.

And the institutions that prize them, price themselves, price their tuition, as though it would never end, ⁓ are about to discover how much of their business model was borrowed from students who had no way to say no to price increases. And as as I do the wrap this week.

Peter Corey is right about one very important thing. The blank check has expired. ⁓ Expired in practice earlier this summer. But I think the bigger story is what happens next. These new federal borrowing limits and earnings requirements aren't creating the underlying financial problems at many colleges. They're exposing them. A college already struggling with declining enrollment, with recurring operating losses year after year.

Aggressive tuition discounting announced what 57% last year, ⁓ weak retention and limited limited financial reserves now has even less room for error. ⁓ A financially strong college, whether it's through tuition pricing or endowment, can adjust its price and pricing, can redesign programs, can increase institutional aid. They can write out the transition into this new federal program. A financially fragile college probably does not have those options.

That's why. That's why families need to look beyond the campus tour, beyond the scholarship slash discount offer, beyond the four color admissions brochure. The question has become

Gary Stocker (00:26:21)
Really it's not can we afford this college? You can ask that for sure. Families also need to ask, can this college or these colleges that I'm looking at, can they afford to deliver what they're promising us over the next four years? Will this college be financially healthy enough? Financien to deliver what it is promising to myself or my student?

federal government is beginning to demand more evidence that college programs produce financial results. Families should demand evidence of this as well. The era of unlimited borrowing, even though still substantial borrowing, the era of unlimited borrowing helped hide weak college business models, weak college solutions. The new rules will probably expose them. And moms and dads, grandpas and grandmas, aunts and uncles and students, you'll want to know what they reveal.

Before you write and send in that tuition deposit and that tuition check.

Gary Stocker (00:27:25)
So the real rap is coming next Monday, August thirty first. My college decision lens. One lens. ⁓ One number should get every parent's attention. Listen to that number. Zero dollars. One number should get every parent's attention. Zero dollars. That's the amount. A beautiful campus tour will reimburse you, zero, will reimburse you if the college turns out to be wrong for whatever reason.

college won't reimburse you for an extra year of tuition. The college won't replace credits that don't transfer. It won't restore time lost after changing colleges for whatever reason. And it won't compensate your students for majors or even for sections that get eliminated in the face of financial challenges. And it won't make up for discovering too late.

Waiting too long to discover that the college was struggling long before your student, long before your family arrived. And that's ⁓ the purpose of my college decision lens next Monday. ⁓ It's not to make parents afraid of colleges, it's to help families ask better questions, be more informed before making the commitment.

At My College Viability on August 31st, the My College Decision Lens. I'll be back in two weeks. We won't have a show next Monday. I'm going to traveling. I'll be back in two weeks with more information ⁓ on the new tool on the new tool. And of course, much, much more as colleges start the 2026-2027 academic year. As always, grateful and thankful for all the listeners. Make sure you're not a podcast hog and share this podcast link with your college friends, with your families looking at colleges, and those you think might gain value.

From the college. See you in two weeks.